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Sat, 18 May 2024

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By Lord Watson of Wyre Forest
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Local Elections Live: Grim Results For Sunak, But Houchen Wins

(Alamy)

6 min read

The Conservative Party could lose up to 500 council seats in the local elections, as the party braces for a bleak and bruising set of results.

Labour took control of Hartlepool council, where the party lost a by-election in 2021, and won Redditch and Thurrock which are perceived as key battle grounds for the next election if Keir Starmer's party are to win an overall majority. 

A Labour Party spokesperson said winning back Hartlepool was a "groundbreaking moment" after the disappointing results we saw here in 2021.

"Keir Starmer pledged to change the Labour Party after that result, and today’s win shows that this changed Labour party is ready to deliver the change that communities like Hartlepool are crying out for," they said. 

"Making gains here shows that the Party is on track to win a general election and is firmly back in the service of working people.”

The Labour Party has won the North East mayorality after it saw off independent challenger Jamie Driscoll. 

Kim McGuinness, the Labour candidate, won more than 185,000 votes and 41% of the vote share. Driscoll came second with 26,600 votes and 28% of the vote share.  

Professor John Curtice told the BBC's Today Programme that the Conservatives were defending a "very high baseline" in the local elections, but so far they were on course to lose half the seats they previously held. But he added that the results were close to catastrophic for the party. 

"They may end up losing 500 seats which was the thing they were meant to avoid," he said. 

"Where we've got the detailed voting numbers, it looks as though the Conservative vote is... down on where it was last year, and we're probably looking at certainly one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performance in local government elections for the last 40 years."

The Tories have no seats in some of England's largest cities including Manchester, Sheffield and Liverpool.

Labour also holds its biggest majority on Swindon council for more than 30 years, with the area seen as a key marginal coming up to the general election. 

Starmer's party lost overall control of Oldham council which is part of the party's traditional heartlands. 

The Tories managed to hold on to Harlow council in Essex despite Labour making significant gains across the country. Robert Halfon, the Conservative MP for Harlow, described the results in his patch on X "as the greatest comeback since Lazarus." 

Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chairman, told TimesRadio it had been a "tough night" for the Tories. 

"I think we've had to say a very high watermark in 2021 we've we've only seen a quarter of the council's declare so far, none of those big metro mares in places like the West Midlands or Teesside," he said.

"There's no doubt that these are far worse sets of elections as you suggested than in 2021 when we had those vaccine bounced elections."


Big Blackpool swing for Labour

Nonetheless the Conservatives suffered a heavy by-election defeat in Blackpool South after Labour enjoyed a 26 point wing. It was the third biggest swing in post-war by-election history.

Labour won 59 per cent of the vote compared to the Conservatives who won 17 per cent. Reform UK fell short of the Tories by 100 votes. 

A Conservative Party spokesperson said the by-election was a "tough" fight. They claimed they had priced-in a difficult by-election after its MP Scott Benton stepped down after he had lobbied ministers on behalf of gambling companies. 

“What has been clear is that a vote for Reform is a vote for Sir Keir Starmer - taking us right back to square one,” the spokesperson said. 

Keir Starmer MP, Leader of the Labour Party, said the "seismic" win in Blackpool South was "truly historic". 

“I am so proud of the positive campaign we ran. To those who have put their trust in us in Blackpool, and those considering giving Labour their vote, we are ready to serve your interests," he said. 

“Our new Labour MP Chris Webb has shown that after years of neglect with the Tories, there is a better alternative. The message to Rishi Sunak is clear. It’s time for change, it’s time for a general election.”

Speaking at a military base on Friday afternoon, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told SkyNews it wa "disappointing" to lose Conservative councillors.

He said he wanted to point to the party winning Harlow, which earlier this week was seen as a key ward for Labour to win if it was to get a majority at the next election. 

"I'm focused completely on the job at hand," he said. "That's delivering for people across the country.

"If you just look at what we're doing, in the last week or so alone, a 900 pound tax cut hitting people's pay slips; the first failed asylum seeker off to Rwanda. At the same time, what have Labour said? Well, they said that they are going to scrap the Rwanda scheme," he added. 


Ben Houchen wins Tees Valley mayoral race and secures third term

The Conservative party's Ben Houchen has been re-elected as Mayor of the Tees Valley.

Labour conceded conceded defeat on Friday morning. It was confirmed by Friday lunchtime that Houchen had done enough to get over the line and defeat Labour candidate Chris McEwan.

There had been suggestions in the run-up to Thursday's vote that Houchen was at risk of losing the mayorality to Labour, despite winning the 2021 election with over 70 per cent of the vote.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would have suffered a serious blow to his authoritiy if Houchen had been toppled by Labour. Despite the Conservative victory in Tees Valley, the party has suffered a series of blows in the local elections across the country. 

Conservative rebels distanced themselves from an immediate challenge to Sunak despite the results. 


Smaller parties' success indicate electoral challenges for Tories and Labour

Strong performances from Green Party, Reform UK and Liberal Democrats in the local elections are an early warning sign to Labour and the Conservative Party ahead of the next election, pollsters have said. 

The Conservatives could lose 500 seats while the UK's smaller parties have been making inroads. 

Scarlett Maguire, a director at JL Partners polling agency, told PoliticsHome that Reform has the potential to “still harm the Conservatives” in the long-run ahead of the general election. 

She explained: “One of the differences between Reform and UKIP is even though UKIP drew more support from the Conservatives than it did from Labour and Lib Dems, it was slightly more evenly spread where whereas Reform are basically only hurting the Conservatives.”

Maguire said the Green Party were an “interesting counterpoint” to Reform’s performance. Their results offer signs of “little red warning lights” of potential problems for a Labour government under Keir Starmer. 


Labour win mayoralty in "Rishi Sunak's backyard" 

Labour have won "in Rishi Sunak’s backyard" after taking the York and North Yorkshire mayoralty.

Labour candidate David Skaith has won the election to become the first ever Mayor of the York and North Yorkshire, beating Conservative candidate Keane Duncan.

Skaith, who runs a clothes shop in York and chairs the York High Street Forum, won 66,761 votes, compared to Duncan's 51,967.

A Labour spokesperson said: “This is a truly historic result in York and North Yorkshire. Keir Starmer's Labour party is now winning in Rishi Sunak’s backyard. The Prime Minister’s own constituents have taken a look at the two parties and chosen Labour.”

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