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Insider Research
Understanding the heart of Westminster
Friday 11th September 2009 | 11:46
No change since the summer: Tory election victory seen as sound as ever
The expectations within Westminster for the next general election remain unchanged since before the summer: an outright Conservative victory is widely anticipated, and the number of Phi100 panellists expecting a strong majority is growing.
The number of people within Westminster expecting a strong Conservative majority at the next general election has been rising throughout 2009, according to results from the PoliticsHome Phi100.
The politically balanced Phi100 panel comprises senior representatives from parliament, the media, parties and think tanks, providing a unique insight into opinion at the highest level of British politics.
The panel have been asked for their expectations for the results at the next election on a regular basis since spring 2008.
The tracker results indicate that while the expectation of a Labour majority has always been low, throughout 2009 there has been a hardening consensus of an outright Conservative majority, with increasing numbers of insiders thinking that the party will win big.
This month over a third of the Phi100 panel expect a strong Conservative majority at the next general election. The proportion with this opinion in November last year was just six per cent.
September’s results are in line with April’s poll which was conducted before recess, suggesting that, in the eyes of the media and Parliament, little has changed over the summer.
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Summaries and transcripts from TV and radio
Ann Widdecombe: Prayers before council meetings are 'quite proper'
10/02/2012 on Any Questions, BBC Radio 4
David Lammy: Aggressive secularism taking over UK
10/02/2012 on Any Questions, BBC Radio 4
Sir Menzies Campbell: Left should support NHS reforms
10/02/2012 on Any Questions, BBC Radio 4
Transcript
Speech by Ivan Lewis MP to the WWF/RGS seminar: “Navigating the perfect storm: the international challenge of food, water and energy security”
09/02/2012
rick
And who is the one person who still believes in a labour majority? We would all love to hear their reasoning
A J Scott
You cannot blame the Queen for this mess and nonsense. All parties have for centuries for good reasons and philosophy diminished and re-positioned the place of the Crown in our constitution.
Blame the stupid voters and the politicians who have bribed them.
mike
Perhaps we can have an elected primeminster this time.
A J Scott
I meant to add: "Put your money on the bob town nag" doodah etc.
At least the nag wasn't on all those pills Mr Brown seems to need.
John Wood
Polly Toynbee I assume.
A J Scott
How good it is to see that the "insiders" are at last prepared to admit that what we have all seen for yonks is going to happen. God Bless them as they go to their worthy slumbers.