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Insider Research

Insider Research

Understanding the heart of Westminster

Will the T-word be next? Not a chance, say politicans

Candour on spending cuts is coming into fashion - but the chances of Tax Rises being talked about at any party conference are small, say insiders

Now that all three main parties are openly discussing spending cuts, will conference season see a similar candour about future tax rises? Not a chance, say insiders from across the political spectrum.

Seventy per cent of the Phi100 panel - which includes MPs and peers across the political spectrum as well as media commentators, strategists, think tank heads and academics - agree that any benefits that arise from 'breaking the taboo' of tax rises will be outweighed by the negative headlines that would follow. 

 Do you think it would be a net political positive or negative for a party to be the first to promise a substantial new tax rise at Conference?

‘There's candour, and then there's plain stupid!’

Just one in five believe the first party to announce a tax rise will be in a favourable position, with the figure rising to one in four amongst left-leaning insiders.

One non-aligned commentator summed up why the current stand-off remains, saying, ‘Tax rises are inevitable but voters absolutely hate the prospect’, whilst a right-leaning expert pointed out that ‘the evidence is that voters hate tax rises more than they fear spending cuts.’

Another was more frank, declaring, ‘There's candour, and then there's plain stupid!’

Leave a comment...

Steve Expat

Derek, you are correct in your assertions about tax rates from an economic point of view, the problem is how it is sold politically. Labour would love Cameron to announce that he is in effect giving a 10% tax cut to the wealthiest fraction of a percent of society, just as they bang on constantly about the Tories' pledges on Inheritance tax.

DC has to convince the average man in the street that abolishing the top rate of 50% income tax has a positive effect on tax income (by reducing avoidance measures and emigration, as well as encouraging hard work), that is the challenging bit

Glen Jenvey

Could someone direct me to some hard evidence that shows The Laffer Curve is real?

Bill Holden

You people really have not got it yet have you! The reality on the ground for next year is: Tax rises, service cut backs, devaluation of the pound and a mountain of un-saleable debt bonds. The situation that we are in has its roots in the ending of the Bretton Woods agreement and the repeal of the rules governing banks and speculative international investment. The world debts have been buildding for the last 40 years and will not just disappear. Wew need to re-link price to asset in order for trade to have any basis from which to have meaning. Dont worry nobody has listened to me for many years and I dont suppose that they will start anyday soon!