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PoliticsHome Polls
Public opinion today
Friday 18th September 2009 | 17:40
One in two non-aligned voters 'would vote Lib Dem'
A Liberal Democrat strategy of targeting Labour supporters and floating voters instead of Tories at the next election is their best shot, new research confirms
New opinion research on the Liberal Democrats, conducted by PoliticsHome to coincide with the party conference, suggests that a strategy of targeting Labour supporters and non-aligned voters instead of competing for natural Tory votes is the correct one to maximise their chances of success at the next general election.
In a new question designed to indicate underlying attitudes to the Lib Dem brand, PoliticsHome asked a sample of 1,235 UK voters, weighted by party identification to reflect the UK population, whether they would vote for the Liberal Democrats if they thought they had a serious chance of winning in their constituency.
A surprising forty three per cent of natural Labour supporters and fifty per cent of non-aligned voters say they would either definitely or probably vote for the Liberal Democrats in this scenario.
Conservative supporters were much less likely to even consider the Lib Dems: seventy eight per cent would either probably or definely not vote for the Liberal Democrats.
These significant percentages suggest that there is a large group of potential new voters who are positively disposed towards the Lib Dems, but that these are almost entirely composed of natural Labour and nonaligned voters. A strategy of targeting these groups of voters is likely to offer the greatest electoral reward.
PoliticsHome interviewed 1,235 adults by email between 15-16 Sep 2009. Results are weighted by party ID to reflect the UK at large.
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christina speight
Bogus research. It asks a wildly hypothetical question, suggests the answer and in the the knowledge that there has always been a general air of 'they're not Labour or Tory so they must be alright" they got the answer the LibDems need to get the conference off to a good start!
Bounce that off the guys at UK Polling Report and see if they don't agree with me!
David Evershed
This shows how soft the Labour vote is at present. There was another poll showing that Labour supporters were not that likely to vote at all.
Probably a substantial proportion of Labour voters would also consider voting Conservative or even UKIP or BNP if they thought they might win in the local constituency.
Mr Tyke
The problem with this poll is that it didn't allow for Lib-Dem vs Tory seats. As a Tory voter I would never vote Lib-Dem if the Tory had a good chance of winning. However, if you have a seat where a Tory would be about as welcome as bacon at a bar-mitzvah and it was a straight fight between Lib-Dem and Labour, I would vote Lib-Dem to get Labour out. It's called "Tactical Voting" people! I therefore answered "No - Probably not"
John Caiger
I notice that there is no mention in your polling of the effects of the expenses scandal in those constituencies. I am certain that this will have a major positive effect on the Lib Dem Vote JC
Greg Stone
I love the fact that 2% of Lib Dem supporters probably or definitely wouldn't vote for us if they thought we could win....