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Taking polling to the next level
The first PoliticsHome Electoral Index, when it first came out in September 2008, was a political opinion poll on a scale no-one had seen before. It was the largest representative opinion poll of its type ever conducted and gave the best ever picture of what would actually happen were there to have been a general election at that time.
One year later – less than a year before the next election - PoliticsHome has now repeated the exercise. We are proud to present the largest, most detailed and accurate prediction of the results of the next general election available anywhere.
Introducing... The Map
Make sure to explore the seat by seat election forecast in our new dynamic map - it recreates the UK in a grid, with similarly sized constituencies that allow you to see what the political make-up of the country really is. Compare the latest PoliticsHome Electoral Index result with last year - find your own MP - see how the country divides into different battlegrounds. Just click on the link below:
33,610 interviews across 238 marginal seats
Today’s normal opinion polls can give us highly accurate figures for the national share of the vote, but to translate that into what it would mean at a general election we are forced to use crude swingometers and assumptions that exactly the same swing would prevail across the country and in different types of seats. This of course is not the case.
Previous polls of marginal seats have been limited and, particularly in Liberal Democrat contests, have a poor record of accuracy. Until now it has been impossible to make any truly informed projections about whether the Conservative swing really is weaker in the North, whether individual MPs will be saved by personal votes, whether the national changes in vote mask different changes in the Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Liberal or Labour vs Liberal battlegrounds or how tactical voting may be at play.
Using a sample of over 34,000 people over 238 marginal constituencies, with fieldwork carried out by Yougov PLC, the PoliticsHome electoral index allows us for the first time to look at small groups of key marginals, to compare how people are reacting in the London commuter belt, or South Western LD/Con marginals, seaside towns or the urban West midlands. It also allows us to single out the specific demographics that will decide the election – people voting Conservative who might change their mind or people wavering between Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Lib Dem target seats. is, quite simply, the most detailed snapshot to date of British political public opinion in the marginal seats that will decide the next general election.
DOWNLOAD FULL VOTING INTENTIONS TABLES
DOWNLOAD FULL DEMOGRAPHIC BREAK TABLES
SKIP TO:
Introduction --- Prediction Summary --- The new political landscape --- Tactical Voting and the Personal Vote --- The Deciding Factors --- The Key Issues --- Sleaze --- Campaigning --- Changing Opinions --- Methodology --- View 2008 report
REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS:
Inner London --- Outer London --- London's Commuter Belt --- Seaside Towns --- Labour's Southern Bastions --- Urban West Midlands --- West Midlands hinterland --- East Midlands --- West Yorkshire --- North West --- North East England --- Cumbria --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: South West --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: Elsewhere --- Labour vs Lib Dems --- Welsh Marginals --- Scottish Marginals
