PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
- Sign up to see last 24 hours
Understanding people's real voting intentions
When answering normal voting intentions many people give the party they support, even if this is not actually the party they would put a cross against when it came to voting. In reality people might, for example, support the Labour party, but vote Liberal Democrat in their own constituency as the only party that could beat the Conservatives; or they could support the Conservatives, but in their own constituency vote Labour because the local MP helped them with a problem they contacted him about.
As in 2008, the PoliticsHome Marginal survey uses a unique question formulation to try and find out which party people would actually vote for in their own constituency, rather than who they support on the national stage. We asked firstly a standard voting intention question, but then prompted people to think about tactical considerations, their own constituency and the candidates standing there, before asking them how they would vote in their own area. All the seat projections in this report are based on these “locally prompted” figures, and they made some significant differences to how people said they would vote.
In seats where the battle is between the Conservative and Labour party, prompting people to think about their own seat shifted support from the Conservatives to Labour, suggesting that despite the expenses scandal most sitting MPs can still count on some degree of personal vote. As was the case last year, there is still no sign of Liberal Democrat supporters tactically voting Conservative to oust Labour (though neither is there any sign of them voting tactically against the Tories).
The locally prompted question made the biggest difference in seats where the battle is between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, the level of Liberal Democrat support increased by 10 points when people were prompted to consider their own constituency, taking support from both Labour and the Conservatives, suggesting that sitting Liberal Democrat MPs continue to benefit from both anti-Conservative tactical voting and a personal vote. National polls show the level of Liberal support far below what they achieved in 2005, but our poll shows they are holding their own in the seats that matter.
SKIP TO:
Introduction --- Prediction Summary --- The new political landscape --- Tactical Voting and the Personal Vote --- The Deciding Factors --- The Key Issues --- Sleaze --- Campaigning --- Changing Opinions --- Methodology --- View 2008 report
REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS:
Inner London --- Outer London --- London's Commuter Belt --- Seaside Towns --- Labour's Southern Bastions --- Urban West Midlands --- West Midlands hinterland --- East Midlands --- West Yorkshire --- North West --- North East England --- Cumbria --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: South West --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: Elsewhere --- Labour vs Lib Dems --- Welsh Marginals --- Scottish Marginals
