Tuesday 10th May 2011 | 16:06

How long until "Ed Miliband is not a Leader" becomes the Tory campaign?

Ed Miliband has not had a good week.

He lost the AV referendum – not simply in terms of the result, but more seriously, in making many people question whether he had any ability to stamp his authority on his own party, let alone persuade the country as a whole. Even the question as to whether he tried to do either is equally damning.

He presided over the biggest Labour defeat in Scotland in living memory, possibly setting in train a course that will lead to independence.

In the local elections, Labour’s progress in contests south of Birmingham was anaemic at best. In marginals from Dartford to Worcester, the Conservatives actually managed to gain seats.

In each of these, he has seemed somehow powerless; an observer, or even victim, of political events – not someone shaping them.

This is a hugely dangerous position for any leader to be in. Whatever their party’s poll lead, general elections often transform into presidential contests between potential Prime Ministers.

Labour figures may have the sinking feeling that Ed Miliband may not be an effective spokesman for… anything. In some ways the election results represent the worst of all worlds – not quite good enough to beat Cameron, but not quite bad enough to launch serious leadership questions.

Yesterday’s YouGov poll makes for even grimmer reading for Labour. It tested party leaders across a number of attributes, asking respondents to tick all that apply to each of them.

Amongst voters as a whole, Cameron leads on all attributes, other than being ‘in touch with the concerns of ordinary people’, where Ed holds a strong lead, and ‘honesty’, where they are tied. Nick Clegg is third on each attribute, other than ‘charismatic’, where he outpaces Ed, and being in touch with ordinary people’s concerns, where he leads Cameron by 1 point.

A very similar pattern emerges when you look at how the supporters of each party view their leaders, with Conservative voters rating David Cameron much higher across most attributes than Labour voters rate Ed Miliband. This points to a conviction gap about their own leader as a potential Prime Minister.

Indeed, Nick Clegg performs at a very similar level among Liberal Democrats as Ed does among Labour supporters. Remaining Liberal Democrat voters, while giving Clegg a huge lead in understanding ordinary people, give Cameron an equally large lead on being ‘decisive’ and a ‘natural leader’, pointing to the way they see the dual leadership roles in the Coalition.

Even among Ed Miliband’s number one target group, those who voted Liberal Democrat in last year’s election (as against the far smaller number still with the party), the Labour leader is flagging – and leads only in understanding ordinary people, and, oddly tied with Nick Clegg, on honesty. David Cameron leads across all other leadership attributes in this key Labour target group. It must however be said, that this group of largely disillusioned former Lib Dems, have a very low opinion of each leader.

Conservative Campaigns HQ could take a few tips from their Canadian sister party on how to mercilessly exploit this weakness. In 2008, the key slogan of the Canadian Conservatives’ election campaign was simply ‘Stephane Dion is not a Leader’. Their focus of the Quebecois Dion’s sometimes poor command of English, ties in well with Ed Miliband’s own unusual “grawling” intonation.

 

 

Our mocked-up poster, though cheeky, is not too far removed from the more whimsical poster the Conservatives have produced this week.

These questions seem bound to continue.