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Conservatives vs Liberal Democrats in the South West
With a few exceptions the battleground between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in the South West is largely a rural one, stretching across much of Cornwall, Devon and Somerset. Tactical voting and the personal vote of MPs makes a huge impact here – the figures below reflect our locally prompted voting intention figures which are in sharp contrast to how voters in these seats say they would vote when not prompted to think specifically about their own seat.
This year’s survey shows a slightly smaller swing from the Liberal Democrats to Conservatives, but enough for them to lose seven seats (along with Cheltenham, which we did not poll, and Somerton and Frome which is already notionally Conservative on new boundaries).
Seat-by-seat prediction
3.7% swing to the Conservatives from Labour; 4.1% to the Conservatives from Lib Dems
SKIP TO:
Introduction --- Prediction Summary --- The new political landscape --- Tactical Voting and the Personal Vote --- The Deciding Factors --- The Key Issues --- Sleaze --- Campaigning --- Changing Opinions --- Methodology --- View 2008 report
REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS:
Inner London --- Outer London --- London's Commuter Belt --- Seaside Towns --- Labour's Southern Bastions --- Urban West Midlands --- West Midlands hinterland --- East Midlands --- West Yorkshire --- North West --- North East England --- Cumbria --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: South West --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: Elsewhere --- Labour vs Lib Dems --- Welsh Marginals --- Scottish Marginals
