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PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
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PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
Monday 16th May 2011 | 09:11
I haven't seen any betting markets* on this yet, but it's worth pondering who could replace Chris Huhne should he resign to 'clear his name' on the speeding allegations.
Remember that the Lib Dems have a guaranteed five Cabinet posts, so the exit of one of their key players would mean another Lib Dem arrival.
So who's in a position to enter the Cabinet? Well, my money would be on Ed Davey. Many Lib Dems were surprised that Davey didn't get a Minister of State post last May but he's stuck to the task of postal reform and proved an invaluable ally alongside Vince Cable at BIS. More importantly, he's been one of the party's most senior modernisers for a long time. Prior to Nick Clegg's arrival at Westminster, many had seen Davey as the dark horse contender for the leadership.
Another option could be Norman Lamb, who is closer to Clegg and was hugely disappointed not to make the cut last May for any ministerial job. The counter case is that bringing him in straight to Cabinet could just look strange given his lack of ministerial experience.
Of the other contenders, Sarah Teather and Nick Harvey have their admirers, but both have their plates full with schools and defence reforms right now.
Among the old guard, there's always Ming and Paddy but it's unlikely that either would have the energy or appetite for a demanding round-the-clock Cabinet post.
Ironically, one of the people who would be best placed to come into the Cabinet is not a Lib Dem, but a Tory.
Grant Shapps is one of the original Cameroons and remains very close to the leader. His localism bill is set to complete its Commons passage soon and he'd be free to take up a new challenge. Shapps has long been an environmentally friendly, modernising type and was one of the ministers to swing strongly behind Huhne recently in his battle to ensure deep carbon cuts. His time will come.
If there is an emergency reshuffle (and it's far from clear the PM will want one - don't forget that Tony Blair remained in post while Plod carried out a lengthy criminal investigation), it may be that a nice Tory is shifted to Climate (possibly Jeremy Hunt?) and they are in turn replaced by a Lib Dem.
What's certain is that many Tories are not exactly displeased at Huhne's discomfort. One Tory minister tells me it's his birthday this week and Huhne's resignation would be the perfect present. Others joke that the Aussie slang for 'idiot driver' is "a Hoon".
Whatever happens to Huhne, it's clear that the PM is determined to use Year 2 of the Coalition to return to the kinder, gentler persona that got him noticed with the punters in the first place. He knows that likeability-with-competence is his best asset. That's why Cameron sees the carbon cuts as essential to the Government's green image, that's why we're seeing him restate his personal commitment to the NHS today, that's also why we're seeing the flexible working rights unveiled today.
The Lansley reforms and, to a lesser extent, the Willetts uni-for-the-rich row have both served to 'retoxify' the Tory brand and the PM knows it. I suspect we will see a bit more deep detox in the coming weeks and months.
Whoever replaces him, Huhne's exit would have to be used as a further detox moment.
*FOOTNOTE: Ladbrokes have odds only on who's favourite to next leave the Cabinet, not who will be the replacement.
UPDATE: In my haste, I somehow omitted to mention Jeremy Browne, the FCO minister (and a minister of state unlike Davey, who's a PUS). He could well get a step-up.
There is also Paul Burstow, but he's needed for NHS reform (and has been perhaps a bit too keen on the Lansley reforms for Lib Dem comfort)
SDC
Laws? Wait a week, and he'll have served his punishment and be fully rehabilitated.
It doesn't add up...
There's nothing kind or gentle about imposing power cuts and the most expensive energy on the planet. It's a good way to lose an election though.
An Englishman
My sixteen year old son could replace Huhne. Much more sensible and far better connected to reality. And a lot nicer. And infinitely less creepy. My dog is also always on the lookout for new situations, too, and would certainly be much more able and trustworthy than Huhne.
Ken Hall
IF Huhne is to leave, then the next minister for energy and climate change should be a climate realist who will back serious and achievable technologies. So far we have had lunatics ploughing billions into windmill subsidies. We need to look at investing seriously in hydrogen, algae, tidal and nuclear energy. We need to stop leading the world in carbon reduction, as cutting the UK's contribution will have NO effect on the climate at all. We could bankrupt this nation and create a modern stone age, where we all live in caves, but never ever light a fire to warm it, and we would still have NO effect on the global climate. We need the BIG contributors, (China, USA, India, Brazil etc), to reduce their contributions. The USA has seen their contributions decline, due to the negative economy. Meanwhile China's roars ahead unabated, producing more carbon per month than the UK produces in a year. I do not mind making sacrifices and cuts providing that there is some payoff for it in the future. However, Britain faces NO payoff whatsoever and 100% downside. Let's restore sanity to the Climate change brief. By all means look towards clean technologies, but let's look at technologies that actually work!
Betapolitics
If I were Nick Clegg I would want Huhne's departure to lead to a full reshuffle. The Lib Dems made a strategic area by not having anyone head the five major spending departments (Health, Education, Defence, Work and Pensions, Justice) or the stratgic heart of government (Cabinet Office). Give Environment to Shapps and Laws can do Justice or Transport. Nick Platform 10
Trevors Den
Since this low carbon rubbish is guaranteed to drive us bankrupt just why does it matter who replaces Huhne?
Terrible but True
I was thinking a piece of rotten fruit on a stick, but on reflection any life on or in it may have some ethical basis for existing and science-based use. So not cabinet material.
SD
The most obvious successor is Alastair Carmichael - desperately unlucky not to get the SS Scotland post when Danny Alexander moved to the treasury. He is the government Deputy Chief Whip (and hence the senior LibDem Whip) and a former leader of the Lid Dems in Scotland. Although seen as to the left of the party (as with Huhne) and a member of the left wing Beveridge Group, he is serving the Coalition government in a key area as a Whip and could have earned a promotion. He also wrote a chapter for Britain after Blair (the follow up volume to the Orange Book) on transport which shows his environmental and infrastructural credentials. If there is a vacancy, I would think he was a safe pair of hands who would work well with others and keep the balance of LibDems right at a critical time to ensure the party does not fracture further.
SD
Doh! Carmichael wasn't actually leader of the libdems in Scotland, but I think the rest is right and he would stand a good chance of promotion as a safe pair of hands to keep the Beveridge left of centre LibDems happy.
RobertoB
More importantly, he's been one of the party's most senior modernisers for a long time. ----------------------------- Please, could we use less vaccuous terms? I do not know what that means? Is it a left/right thing? It seems quite loaded and biased term. I believe Herr Hitler could himself a moderniser. I have no idea from reading that of the politics of Ed Davey.
Sarah
Greg Clark is another "nice" Tory, and would almost certainly have got Huhne's job after holding the Climate Change brief in Opposition, if Cameron had won a majority. But he can only have it if a mini-reshuffle is done instead of a straight libdem swap.