Salmond's English allies |

Monday 23rd May 2011 | 16:02

Salmond's English allies

Fresh from his triumph in the Scottish elections, First Minister Alex Salmond is down in London, meeting with members of the Cabinet to push for stronger economic powers at Holyrood, attack the new oil and gas tax and carve out a new deal on renewable energy.

Most of these discussions over the next few years will be a win-win for Salmond. Any concession is a political success and proof of his abilities to stand up for Westminster – and any refusals on the part of the UK government will be painted as yet another argument for separation.

As a referendum on independence becomes a reality, more questions will be asked around its phrasing and timing.

One of these was asked at Prime Minister’s Questions last week, perhaps somewhat facetiously, by Conservative MP James Gray.

The people of England have almost as much to lose from any move towards Scottish independence and the break-up of the Union as the people of Scotland. Will the Prime Minister therefore give us all a vote in a referendum on the subject?

David Cameron however replied that much as he was against a referendum, the UK government would grant one – and that it would be held in Scotland alone.

This weekend’s YouGov poll suggests that Alex Salmond might have rather more to gain from James Gray’s proposition than David Cameron’s. While Scots continue to oppose independence by a wide 50% to 31% margin, the English are 36% to 32% in favour. As such, the British public as a whole currently favour Scottish independence by 1 point, 35% to 34%.

This is the first of three ironies around the independence referendum – and much as Alex Salmond seems unlikely to get a UK-wide referendum, or even see such a move as democratically legitimate, there may be some scope for pro-independence fundraising and activist support from England.

The second irony is that Mr Salmond will probably be crossing his fingers that David Cameron, given the popularity of the Conservatives north of the border, campaigns hard for the maintenance of the Union, as he seems likely to do.

And finally, that it is the Conservative Party that would stand most to gain electorally from Scottish independence, as it would handicap the Labour party for all elections to come, permanently shifting the balance of power at Westminster to the right.

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Salmond's English allies

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