Tuesday 7th June 2011 | 07:31

Our NHS reform poll shows Tories still toxic on health

Today we released our groundbreaking poll on the Coalition government’s NHS reforms. This will be the first of our in-depth studies conducted with YouGov@Cambridge, a think tank set up to provide a link between YouGov’s research expertise and the University of Cambridge Politics and International Studies Department.

You can dowload the full dataset here - and our report here.

In short, our poll finds the while voters largely support reforms in principle, they don’t trust the Conservatives to deliver them in practice – but there’s more political risk for Clegg than Cameron.

It is not that the NHS reform proposals themselves are unpopular.

The vast majority of respondents accepted Andrew Lansley’s fundamental argument as to why NHS commissioning is in need of reform. The statement that “The way in which the NHS spends its money needs to be reformed, as increased life expectancy and new drugs mean it is always becoming more expensive to run” was backed by a breathtaking 71% to 6%. Even Labour supporters agreed 59% to 12%. Indeed, not making any changes to commissioning was opposed 37% to 20%.

The principles of a more locally responsive NHS were also strongly supported, with 73% to 5% of respondents agreeing that “The people deciding how the NHS spends its money in a local area should be more accountable to people living in that area”, rising to 85% to 4% among the over-60s.

As to the reforms Andrew Lansley has so far proposed, they’re not all that unpopular. GP commissioning, was supported by a plurality, 38% to 33%. Indeed, when this is broadened to include “a wide range of local medical staff” it is supported by a huge 50% to 21%, including Labour voters by 40% to 31%. Even the controversial role of Monitor to regulate competition for NHS services, which Nick Clegg wants scrapped, is narrowly supported 33% to 29%. The idea of NHS services being commissioned from “any willing provider” is opposed 38% to 31%, less than might be expected – around this however, there is a clear partisan split, with Labour voters opposed by 19% to 59%.

When asked whether they support the reforms however, without being informed of what they include, respondents instinctively oppose them 20% to 41%. Within these figures, Labour voters are a lot more opposed to them (6% to 68%) than Conservatives are supportive (42% to 15%) – with Lib Dems also strongly opposed (14% to 43%).

Part of the gap between the theory and practice of the reforms may be based around doubt about the involvement of medical staff in commissioning – as much as people like the idea, the vast majority thought people who actually practice medicine too busy – 52% to 21%, including 44% to 30% of Conservatives.

The key explanation however is around the fact voters still don’t trust the Conservatives on the NHS. The most unpopular idea polled, opposed 7% to 71%, was a full privatisation of the NHS. When respondents were asked whether they thought that “deep down, the Conservatives want to fully privatise the NHS”, they agreed 49% to 21%. Although it was felt that the party did at least think the NHS should be free at the point use, 38% to 26% (a further 37% didn’t know or were indifferent).

This points to the failure of David Cameron to truly detoxify his party on healthcare. A large plurality, 45% to 23%, believe that “any changes the Conservatives make to the NHS will be motivated by a desire to help business rather than patients.” Even 16% of those who recall having voted for the party in 2010 believe this is true.

This said, however, there is cold comfort for the Labour Party. By 53% to 9%, respondents agreed that “the Labour Party have not come forward with a viable alternative to the government's NHS reform proposals”, including Labour supporters by 31% to 21%. Respondents also disagreed by 25% to 46% that “only Labour governments can really be trusted on the NHS.”

As for Nick Clegg’s party, there is some understanding that Liberal Democrat involvement in the NHS debate has been positive. By 70% to 8%, voters see the NHS reforms as rushed, and that the “government should wait as long as it takes to give the plans proper scrutiny.” Such figures suggest that Nick Clegg is on solid ground against the Conservative Right in wanting to take the bill back to committee. A plurality believed the Liberal Democrats were bringing changes to the NHS bill because they were genuinely interested in protecting the NHS, 32% to 23%. A similar number (35% to 23%) felt that they were ensuring the Conservatives weren’t able to do whatever they wanted on the reforms – interestingly slightly more people who recalled voting Conservative in 2010 agreed with this (44%) than voted Liberal Democrat (39%), though 57% of those still sticking with the Lib Dems agreed.

One of the key reforms Liberal Democrats would like to see included in a revised bill, however, is the placing of councillors on commissioning bodies. This one of the most unpopular ideas polled, opposed by 52% to 19%, including among Lib Dem supporters by 50% to 22%.

The electoral impact of pressing ahead with the reforms unchanged also appears to disproportionately damage the Liberal Democrats. While the bill would make 15% of Conservative supporters less likely to support their party, it would make 25% of Lib Dems less likely to support their party – with 22% of Lib Dems saying it would make them more likely to support Labour.

This is particular true of the voters Nick Clegg has lost over the past year, and will be fighting to win back; 39% of those who recall voting Lib Dem in 2010, but who are not planning to do so next time, say it will make them less likely to back the party, with 36% saying it will make them more likely to vote Labour. When added to the 19% of 2010 Liberal Democrats who say they will never vote for the party again, this produces a huge electoral headache for Nick Clegg.

Total sample size was 2,242 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 31st May - 1st June 2011.  The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).