Tuesday 7th June 2011 | 12:47

Changed political climate confirms boundaries headache for Lib Dems

A lot has been made in recent days of Lewis Baston's report for The Guardian on the effect of boundary changes on the respective political parties. This points out, in particular, that as Lib Dem seats are often surrounded by Labour and Conservative ones, that their MPs are most likely to be adversely affected by an influx of new voters.

Mark Pack has set out his case for the ability of Liberal Democrat MPs to survive hugely damaging boundary changes - citing the clear example of Sarah Teather in Brent Central. At the heart of Dr Pack's argument lies the ability of Liberal Democrats to win votes right across demographics.

Indeed, one of the successes of the Lib Dems has been that they were able to supplement their low core vote with the fact that there were not vast numbers of voters with a strong sense of antipathy towards the party. This is very helpful when campaigning in new territory, whether in a by-election or through boundary changes.

To what extent will this still be possible? Our poll on the NHS reforms, conducted by YouGov@Cambridge, contains a question around the effect of an unchanged bill on voting intention for each party. In this, we allowed respondents to say which parties they would 'always' or 'never' vote for.

Far from being the party to which the widest number of voters are willing to consider, the Lib Dems now sit clearly ahead of the Conservatives and Labour on parties voters will 'never' support.

Some MPs may be able to win round new areas through assiduous campaigning, but as Dr Baston has pointed out, there isn't much time for this. Sarah Teather, on winning Brent East in 2003, knew that, should she survive as the local MP, her seat would be abolished by 2010. In fact, at her by-election count, I overheard a UKIP activist commenting that it didn't matter who the MP was, as the seat would be gone in a few years. Teather, however, had a marathon until 2010, in which party activists and councillors were able to do casework and doorstep campaigns in the new parts of the seat - drumming up supporting, and crucially persuading people that they could win in their area.

From the publication of these changes, MPs will have a sprint. They will have less time to gain the credibility brought through regular literature and informal casework that have been the hallmark of an incumbent's response to boundary changes.

This does not mean that incumbent Lib Dems don't have any advantages. Many rely on the local press for their reputation, and such coverage will usually have a readership in the areas directly surrounding their constituency. Any reader of the Eastern Daily Press is likely to be familiar with Norman Lamb, for instance.

The speed of the changes combined with the changed political climate however give Lib Dem incumbents an uphill struggle.