Feedback

The Live Wire

  • Michael McCann | Moore to meet Salmond on Monday to discuss separation referendum.The two key iss...

    • source icon
    • 15:14
  • Warsi: we have a duty to support government policy. Wrong Sayeeda. We have a d...

    • source icon
    • 15:06
  • So prayers are banned in Bridport. Will they leave us nothing of our culture, o...

    • source icon
    • 15:03
  • Sun journalist who attacks "lazy MPs" is himself the son of the LibDem MEP. http...

    • source icon
    • 14:58
  • Tim Montgomerie | Lansley's health problems look terminal, concludes @Pete_Hoskin at @The_Spectato...

    • source icon
    • 14:57
  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers

  • PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers


Insider Research

Insider Research

Understanding the heart of Westminster

Phi100: Osborne got his sums wrong

Over two thirds of MPs, journalists, think tankers and other political insiders believe that George Osborne made a mistake in calculating the saving to be made from raising the state pension age.

George Osborne’s did make a mistake when calculating the amount that could be saved by raising the state pension age.

That’s the view of most Westminster insiders, according to the latest PoliticsHome Phi100 survey.  The Phi100 panel includes MPs and peers from across the political spectrum as well as senior journalists, strategists, think tank directors and academics.  

Sixty eight per cent of the Phi100 believe that the Guardian was right on Saturday to accuse George Osborne of getting his sums wrong over the proposed move. 

Under a quarter (twenty one per cent) bought the official line from Osborne’s office that the discrepancy in numbers was a ‘presentational difference’. 

The question split the panel on partisan lines - with right leaning panellists favouring this view and the Left and Lib Dems unanimous in endorsing the Guardian’s accusation - but the nonaligned panellists were strongly of the opinion that an error had been made.

The National Institute of Social and Economic Research - whose paper provided the basis for George Osborne's statement that he was able to save £13 bn by raising the state pension age - have challenged this claim, saying it would take five years longer than estimated and fall £3bn short. NIESR said Osborne's team had made a mistake in their calculations, while Osborne's office have claimed it was a 'presentational difference'. What is your own view?


Osborne’s credibility in question?

A media panellist said ‘It was somewhere between a mistake and a presentational difference! The £13bn annual saving will only be achieved sometime after 2020 in my understanding.’

Another, however, said 'The Guardian story was a bit of a stretch - no pick up elsewhere'. 

A non-aligned thought leader said: ‘I'm afraid this is par for the course - Osborne has consistently been somewhat fuzzy when it comes to numbers and justifying them. His credibility as a potential Chancellor is not high.’

Leave a comment...

Anna

The guardian's figures were based on 2009 GDP - Osborne's wasn't

If he was wrong why hasn't it been" stretched" in the media -  to use the word in the comment above?

I would say his credibility is higher than a lot of people think.

Barry Chuckle

It's not been mentioned anywhere else as like any Tory policy at the moment they are getting the same free ride that Labour got in 1995-7. DC and GO are going to get a free ride from the press for the next 7 months and then when it all go tits up the press will turn on them. Would be hilarious if wasn't so important.

Cuse

Spot on Barry Chuckle.

Dave + Little Georgie have all the signs of being an absolutely disastrous economic partnership.

And before all my Tory friends dive in with "What about Brown/Gold reserves/roof...sun...shining?"...

Dave + Georgie got every single call on attacking the recession wrong. Just plain wrong. The press don't want to tackle this because the story is about Brown. And as for Dave trying to pin the government down for not setting up enough city regulation...Less than 2 years ago he was berating Brown for setting up too much.

I'd give them one term, with Georgie going in less than 2 years.

James

The Guardian's claims completely miss the point.  Their is a clear ideological gap that has opened up again in politics.  The Tories want to solve the deficit and then bring down national debt by cutting back on public expenditure.  Labour are hoping to get away with fewer cuts and to inflate the economy to solve deficit and debt.

The Government are helped by the civil service, which we all contribute too.  The fact that Osborne may have his sums wrong is neither here nor there - if in Government he would get the full support of the Treasury to put in place his measures and to calculate savings properly.

The question is - which policy for solving the countries finances makes most sense.  I think the Tories policy of sound money makes more financial sense - plenty others take the opposite view.  However, understanding this distinction is critical and it is arguable whether many on the PH100 do understand this - it is also another rubbish question to add to the long list of rubbish PH100 questions. 

Chris

Raising the pension age would create a load more people looking for jobs and at a time when unemployment is rising, is that such a good idea?

Couple this with proposed benefit & JSA cuts the country is going to have a very big group of people barely able to support themselves financially. When people are in that situation how are they supposed to support business or the government through tax?

They can't. If jobs are to be created businesses need a steady flow of income to be able to expand and create jobs and even before banks will lend them money they need to demonstrate that their business is viable, which is a bit difficult when your consumers stop spending money. And I don't think the Tory government will borrow money to support their banker friends let alone important employers.

The retirement age should be voluntary, i.e. The pension is available after (for this example) 60 but you need to retire before you can get it, maybe with different levels of pension payment depending on the number of hours a week you are working.