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PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
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PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
Saturday 23rd July 2011 | 22:00
Despite the fragile recovery here in Britain and worries about the faltering economic recovery around the world a year ago, George Osborne’s first decision as Chancellor was to throw caution to the wind and go for broke.
He decided to cut further and faster than any other major economy – further and faster than was economically wise or necessary. It was a plan for the economy entirely driven by his political timetable.
As I argued in a speech at Bloomberg last summer the new government’s reckless plan was like ripping out the foundations of the house just as the hurricane is about to hit.
In recent months the chances of a global hurricane have been rising. In America, a budget deal has still to be reached to avert a fiscal and political crisis. In Europe, a meltdown in the eurozone – which would have had catastrophic consequences for jobs and investment in Britain – has been averted for now. It remains to be seen whether this week’s deal will be more than just another sticking plaster or whether we will back in the same place in a few months time.
These look set to be uncertain months in the eurozone and the global economy, which makes it all the more reckless that George Osborne is ploughing on with an economic plan which is not working.
Here in Britain last year’s recovery has already been hugely undermined by George Osborne’s policies. Our economy has seen no growth at all over the last six months, while other major countries have grown much faster.
The reasons why our recovery has stalled since the autumn are clear. Consumers and businesses have reined in their spending and investment plans as they anticipate spending cuts and tax rises which go too far and too fast. The VAT rise in January has added to the squeeze on hard-pressed families and pensioners. And consumer confidence has taken a huge knock since last spring when the Tories invented the deceit that, like Greece, Britain was somehow “on the brink of bankruptcy”.
Simply to stay on track for his Budget forecasts, which have already been downgraded three times, George Osborne needs Tuesday’s crucial figures to show growth of 0.8 per cent in the second quarter of this year. If he fails to achieve that then the government’s economic plans will be even further off track and I suspect we’ll see another round of excuses from the Chancellor.
First he blamed the wrong type of snow, even though other countries suffered severe snow blizzards before Christmas and continued to grow. Now he blames ‘global headwinds’ like higher world oil prices, yet other countries have continued to grow faster than us despite all this.
If we continue to see weaker growth and higher unemployment than expected just a year ago, families and businesses will pay the price. And it will be much harder to get the deficit down too – the stalled recovery means the government is already set to borrow £46 billion more than it had planned.
So this weekend George Osborne needs to get his head out of the sand and start taking urgent action to get our economy growing strongly again.
He could start by listening to the Federation of Small Businesses who this week joined the called for a temporary cut in VAT. I’ve already argued that temporarily reversing January’s mistaken VAT rise would ease the squeeze on families and pensioners, give this stalled economy the jump start it urgently needs and so help get the deficit down for the long term.
And with new figures this week showing City bonuses still very high, the case is even stronger for the government to repeat the bank bonus tax to get young people back to work, build more affordable homes and support small businesses.
Of course, after the global financial crisis, we need tough decisions on tax and spending cuts to get the deficit down. But if we are to avoid long-term damage to our economy and get government borrowing down in a sustainable way, we need a balanced plan that puts jobs and growth first.
It’s time George Osborne put economics before politics and took a more cautious approach. With the foundations of our recovery now badly undermined Britain is now dangerously exposed to the elements.
R.McGeddon
It's pointless Ed Balls railing against George Osborne. Remember Labour's last Chief Treasury Secretary, Liam Byrne ? He confessed all in his pithy note penned to the Coalition's successor, '' There's no money left - good luck', he wrote. As this Country has learnt to its cost, Labour governments have a deep tradition of devaluations, financial crises and budgetary crises. The Blair/Brown Reign of Terror ( 1997-2010 ) has ended in the same way the as in 1979 and 1951. Utter failure.
Gracie
It was a joke, a tradition set by outgoing Treasury secretary to the incoming one. Ed Balls incidentally has been proven to be correct on everything he has forecast, perhaps Osborne should take notice of him, after all this country was in strengthening growth etc when Labour handed the economy over to the Tories, pity Osborne put it into reverse. Shame that News International ran an insidious vitriolic and personal attack on Brown and told lies about him, if that had not happened we may today have been in a much stronger position. I know I am right, my pocket tells me so.
R.McGeddon
A joke ?? Oh yes, I see now. Hilarious. Labour need some new scriptwriters as well as some more believable creative accountants.
Remember the old saying: there are lies, damned lies and Labour statistics.
Nick
1) Despite what Balls says employment (and unemployment) are both better than was forecast, despite weaker GDP. 2) Cutting VAT wouldn't help hard-pressed families. Living standards are under pressure due to rising petrol, energy and food prices. None of which will be affected by a VAT cut. All a VAT cut would do would weaken sterling and push up imported inflation. 3) Similarly any reduction in the present deficit reduction policy would cause sterling to weaken (as confidence in UK fiscal policy falls) and push up inflation. 4) City bonuses are already taxed at 50%. They were only taxed at 40% when Balls' government was in power. So the "bonus tax" is just a smokescreen.
Gracie
Unemployment is still higher than when the Tories took office and the full force of their crazy plans has not taken effect yet. Also the only reason why unemployment has not risen is because of the disproportionate amount of part-time jobs people are being forced to take because they cannot find full-time employment, the number of full time post created in the private sector has also fallen dramatically. And those claiming unemployment benefit has risen dramatically with this and growth being continually forecast down is why Osborne has to borrow £42 billion more than this time last year. Get your head out of the sand. Osborne is wrecking the British economy, last year borrowing was down, tax receipts up, this was as a direct result of labour's measures, now Osborne has stripped them out of the economy we are seeing the damage the Tories are doing. 2) Cutting VAT WILL help hard pressed families, unless you are another that think VAT only applies to luxury goods? VAT is a regressive tax, it harms poorer families because poorer families spend more of their income on necessities. While they are doing this others are cutting back which is what is hurting our high streets and will continue to do so. 3) Are you really saying that you do not want to see a reduction in the deficit because it would weaken sterling? Then what the hell is the Tory chancellor doing with all these austerity measures? What are they for exactly? You are destroying your own argument (and Osborne's) 4) Banks need proper regulation and if they do not like t it then they can sling their hook. I totally object to funding the bonuses of the bankers who caused this problem with their greed. While things are good they pocket the profits, when they are bad they force the taxpayer to bail them out and still take huge bonuses, it is not just wrong it is immoral!
As for "R,McGeddon" parting quip it is laughable and this is why:
"The UK is set to spend £710bn in 2011-2. The debt payments will constitute c.7% of total government expenditure. And whilst in raw terms £50bn is the highest interest payment the UK will make, it is significantly less that what John Major's government were paying between 1992-7. In Gordon Brown's first budget, debt interest payments made up over 9% of total government spending. To be exact, debt interest was 30% higher as a portion of total government spending in 1998 than it is today. This need not even be a problem. When Clement Attlee's government was achieving growth of 10%+ in the 1940s, debt as a proportion of government spending was over 10%. So the next time a growth denier hits you with the debt interest argument, be sure to refer them to the graph above. Also, when Gordon Brown is accused of spending too much during the good years, one can see that Brown performed admirably in reducing John Major's debt interest payments to less that 5% of the total government spending. Not quite the spendthrift we are led to believe. Some right wing opinions have said that this was only achieved because Brown spent more. But I include a graph below that shows debt interest payments as a proportion, not of spending, but instead GDP. As you can see, the results of this data is even worse on the Tories."
Gracie
Sorry tried to supply thelink but it did not come up unless I allow it access to my clipboard, however, the information was taken from the brilliant blog of Dr Eoin Clark of the Green Benches.
Penfold
Bit rich from Balls to leave the politicking out of the economics. Balls is a pit bull who has a track record of being a political animal.
John Bracewell
Why do the media/Press not challenge Balls to detail the effects of the 'too fast and too deep' cuts that he says are being made. Not the scare stories that x thousand nurses or police jobs are ESTIMATED to be lost IN THE FUTURE by self interested parties but actual job losses now. All the figures suggest that the government are still spending more, that the cuts have not yet had much impact. Why is he not held to account for his utterances?