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The Political Pulse

Latest opinion research and analysis from Mark Gettleson

Dave and Boris visiting rioting marginals?

The list of London neighbourhoods affected by this week’s riots feels like a sick game of Mornington Crescent: Tottenham, Wood Green, Brixton, Enfield, Ponders End, Oxford Circus, Waltham Cross, Dalston, Denmark Hill, Leyton, Croydon, Ealing, Walthamstow, Hackney, Woolwich, Streatham, Camden, Harlesden, Peckham, Bethnal Green, Chelsea, Lewisham, Barnet, Notting Hill, Sutton, Tooting, Battersea, Balham, Elephant & Castle, East Dulwich, Merton and Barking. This is not to mention other parts of the country, including Liverpool, Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Bristol, Nottingham, Salford and West Bromwich.

Demographically, the areas were mixed, though the majority are deprived inner city and suburban communities (even Notting Hill far from fits its stereotype and still contains areas of extreme deprivation). The Guardian has produced this interesting map, similar to one which has been doing the rounds on Twitter.

From a political perspective, however, it is interesting to note the three areas of London the Prime Minister and Mayor have chosen to visit during this crisis: Enfield, Clapham Junction and Croydon – or, more specifically, the constituencies of Enfield North (Nick de Bois, Conservative gain in 2010, majority 1692), Battersea (Jane Ellison, Conservative gain in 2010, majority 5977) and Croydon Central (Gavin Barwell, Conservative notional gain in 2010, majority 2969). The Prime Minister also visited the West Midlands Police and local community in the Wolverhampton South West constituency (Paul Uppal, Conservative gain in 2010, majority 691).

In fact, of the only major riot area in a Conservative held marginal that neither Mr Cameron nor Mr Johnson has visited would appear to be Angie Bray’s Ealing Central and Acton constituency. I would watch this space on that.

These areas will not only be crucial for David Cameron in 2015, but also voted heavily for Boris Johnson in 2008. If the Government and Mayor are not seen to respond effectively in these marginal parts of London, Mr Johnson can probably kiss goodbye to City Hall. Indeed, the Mayor and his staff are certainly able to act in a more obviously political and electoral way than the Prime Minister and his civil service team.

It may all be a coincidence, and it is much easier to organise a visit for a senior party figure in areas with strong local infrastructure, which include the MP, a campaign team and a strong understanding of the community – just as Ed Miliband visited Peckham on Tuesday and Nick Clegg travelled to Simon Hughes’ constituency yesterday.

But for more cynical electoral minds, there is something slightly more calculated in the locations chosen – would it really hurt for them to venture into the Lewishams, Tottenhams or Liverpools of this world? Though of course some on the Left in those communities might argue that there presence might infame the security situation.

Leave a comment...

Genevieve
  • 03:17 |
  • 08 Sep 2011
  • 0

I am forever indebted to you for this infmroation.

Dahrann
  • 03:18 |
  • 08 Sep 2011
  • 0

This website makes thngis hella easy.