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News, gossip and insight from PoliticsHome Editor Paul Waugh

Cam's Libya bounce?

The latest Sun/YouGov tracker puts the Tories on 39% today, just one point behind Labour on 40%. The LibDems are on 10%.

That narrow gap - the narrowest with YouGov since January - may well prompt some to conclude that the PM is enjoying something of a Libya 'bounce'.

Certainly in the past week, the figures have shifted a fair bit with YouGov. Just over a week ago, Labour had a nine-point lead.

As news has filtered in from Libya, that has been cut steadily to seven points, five points, three points and now just one point.

The Sun's print edition today doesn't appear to have the details, but you can find them here on UK Polling Report and here on YouGov's own site.

Tonight's fresh YouGov tracker will tell us more about whether this is a blip or a trend.

 

UPDATE: The Daily Tel's James Kirkup points out that it may be Cam's tougher law and order stance that is responsible.

I had considered that, but on looking at the daily polls, I would have expected any 'riots bounce' much earlier. In fact a close look at the YouGov polls in the two weeks after the riots put the Tories between six and nine points behind Labour. It was only after the momentous events in Libya that the gap started to narrow significantly.

Of course, you could argue that it takes a fortnight for the punters to get the message that the PM is tough on law n order. James is certainly right that crime will have more long-term impact on the next election.

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