Tuesday 17th November 2009 | 11:13

Afghanistan: how Westminster and the public differ

New PoliticsHome research reveals the extent of the difference of opinion between the Westminster political community and the public over the war in Afghanistan.

The scale of the challenge facing the Prime Minister as he seeks to convince a sceptical public that it is worthwhile keeping British troops in Afghanistan is revealed today by PoliticsHome, the only opinion research organisation to track and compare opinion between the general public and the political community.

The same key questions on the war were put to both the Phi100 panel of political insiders (which includes MPs and peers, journalists, party strategists and think tank directors from all parties) and a sample of 1,295 voters across the country. 

A fundamental disagreement?

Political insiders were inclined to believe that the West’s involvement in Afghanistan has helped to combat global terrorism: forty four per cent of the panel took this view, compared to fifteen per cent believing that it had contributed to the rise of terrorism. 

Among the public, the opposite view - that involvement in Afghanistan had contributed to the rise of global terrorism - was favoured by a margin of thirty six to twenty one. 

In both cases, a large proportion of people held the view that it was impossible to say either way. 

The government has argued that failure in Afghanistan would lead to Al Qaida re-establishing itself in the country and a consequent increase in terrorist attacks on Western countries. 

While sixty two per cent of insiders agree with this view to some degree, the public are much more divided.  Forty seven per cent either ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ agreed with the argument, but a similar proportion (forty six per cent) were unconvinced, saying that the argument was ‘not really’ or ‘not at all’ valid. 

These differences may trouble policymakers as they point to a fundamental disagreement over the very validity of the campaign itself.

Troop numbers

Both groups were polled on the number of extra US troops they would like President Obama to announce.  The public were significantly less keen on an increase in troop levels: forty per cent wanted either an overall reduction in troop levels, or no significant increase. 

The proportion of insiders taking the same view was twenty nine per cent. 

PoliticsHome interviewed 1,265 voters by email between 13-16 November 2009.  Results are weighted by party ID to reflect the UK at large. The Phi100 panel were interviewed by email between 12-16 November 2009.  Phi100 results are weighted to ensure a politically balanced result.