Insiders still predict Tory majority at next election |

Friday 27th November 2009 | 11:13

Insiders still predict Tory majority at next election

MPs, commentators and other insiders are resistant to speculation that the next election could fail to yield an overall majority for any party

A poll last weekend that showed the Tory lead reduced to six points has generated considerable discussion about the possibility of a hung parliament – but the latest PoliticsHome insider research suggests that within Westminster there is still an overwhelming expectation of a Conservative majority at the next election.

There are increasing signs, however, that expectations of the size of the Conservative majority are being revised downwards. The majority of insiders now expect a slim majority for the party.

Overall, seventy nine per cent of the PoliticsHome Phi100 panel – which includes senior MPs and peers from all the main parties as well as commentators, political editors, strategists and think thank directors – expect a Conservative majority, continuing a trend that has existed since the spring.

However, just seventeen per cent of panellists expect a strong majority for the party. This is the lowest percentage predicting this outcome for a year.

Three quarters of Conservative panellists are now predicting a slim majority for their party.

Seventeen per cent of panellists predict a hung parliament, pouring a degree of cold water on recent fervent speculation.

All still to play for?

A number of panellists emphasised that the outcome of the election was far from being set in stone.

A media panellist said ‘it's still all to play for’, while another noted that ‘the Labour corpse has started twitching!’

Leave a comment...

easynow

12:29 |
27 Nov 2009
Recommended
3

hang on....wasn't the "insiders" predicting an "hung" parliament last week ?

easynow

19:07 |
27 Nov 2009
0

my bad...im sure i read a "prediction" on here....i visit so many "blogs", i forget where i read what sometimes :)

Anna

13:27 |
27 Nov 2009
Recommended
7

"A media panellist said ‘it's still all to play for"

It's got to be Michael White!

little angussie

13:57 |
27 Nov 2009
Recommended
9

Why were all the media fawning over this poll which has been held back for a week? There was also a poll on Monday night which showed a 17% Conservative lead and labour only 1% ahead of the LibDems. Why has this been swept under the carpet with almost no media discussion about it?

It appears that the media are trying to build this poll up as a watershed showing that the tide is turning in Labours favour.

Please be even handed in your reporting!

George Woodhouse

19:51 |
27 Nov 2009
Recommended
3

Yes I agree - I havent seen this poll, giving the Tories 17% lead, reported anywhere else and I think it is more significant than the other one. I believe ot also showed Labour only 1% ahead of the Liberals. In fact the only palc it was reported was on PoliticsHome! So why are you ignoring it now?

David Dee

23:08 |
27 Nov 2009
0

But didn't all the pannellists who might have voted otherwise leave when Ashcroft took over ???

Mike Crowley

17:30 |
28 Nov 2009
Recommended
1

Never mind the polls, look at the responses to David Cameron's own email on the Conservative's own site.

His eager espousal of the GW con and refusal to look at ways to let us off the appalling EU hook are haemorrhaging votes, including mine, at an alarming rate.

We are in desperate need of a statesman to steer the UK through the next troubled years and I am not voting for a Blair, Brown lookalike. Someone has always turned up in the past and we should try and keep the premiership open for him/her.

Username:
Password:
Remember Me
Forgotten details?

The Live Wire

+What we do...

+Sections

+Explore

+PRO

+On the Go

Find your MP

Insider Research

Understanding the heart of Westminster