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Insider Research

Insider Research

Understanding the heart of Westminster

Poll gap narrowing: have the Tories been too negative?

A large number of insiders believe that a Tory failure to put across a sufficiently positive message is behind the party's reduced poll lead. The trend is also seen as inevitable in the run up to an election.

Last night an Independent/ComRes poll was the latest to point towards a hung parliament rather than an outright Tory majority.  Why have several recent polls showed a reduced Tory lead?

PoliticsHome invited the Phi100 panel of political experts and insiders to cast some light on the matter.  The panel – which includes MPs and peers from across the political spectrum as well as senior political journalists, strategists and thought leaders – were provided with a list of possible reasons for the shift and asked to say which they saw as significant. 

More sunshine?

There is a fairly widespread view that a narrowing of the gap is seen as inevitable in the run up to an election.  Sixty per cent of panellists see this as a significant reason.  The results also indicate that:

- The most favoured specific explanation among panellists was that the Tories have failed to communicate a sufficiently positive message to the electorate.  Overall, almost half the panel (forty eight per cent) took this view.  This result follows a recent survey in which insiders called for more sunshine from Cameron. 

- Signs of improvement in the economy were thought to be significant by forty per cent of panellists. 

- The change of Tory policy on Lisbon was not seen as a significant factor by most panellists.  Under a third (twenty nine per cent) of insiders saw this as a significant reason. 

Few panellists believed that an improved performance either from the Labour party generally, or Gordon Brown in particular, was behind the narrowing gap.

Public sector fear?

Several panellists offered their own suggestions for the reduced Tory lead.

A right-leaning media panellist said: ‘Cameron appears to be callow and unprincipled; people just don't trust him because he so obviously tailors what he says to fit the mood of the moment.’

A left-leaning thought leader suspected ‘fear of cuts by public sector workers’. 

A left-leaning strategist agreed, saying ‘many of those who turned against Labour, because they felt the Labour government betrayed their principles or that Cameron isn't really a Tory, have realised that Cameron is a Tory and will run a Tory administration - particularly public servants’. 

A non-aligned media panellist highlighted ‘sympathy for Brown after the condolence letter fiasco’. 

Another media panellist said: ‘The public like Cameron but many remain deeply sceptical about his party. And that's his fault - he's changed the Conservative Party but not by enough.’

Leave a comment...

alan

Cameron has shown by his devious tactics over the EU Referendum that he is no better than Brown or Clegg. He is weddded to the EU. A totalitarian regime is now in control of us now. Cameron refuses to allow the British people to decide and that condemns him.

No more Mr nice guy he is as bad as Brown, Blair and the rest. I believe his ratings will plummet further. It is not the 'government' in Westminster who are in charge anymore anyway. So we could carry on with Brown. Let him reap the whirlwind that will come soon enough when people realise what these politicians have landed the Country with!

Dave

For gods sake you cant have a referendum on a treaty that has been ratified and Cameron said he would have a vote if the treaty wasnt ratified so dont blame him blame the lier brown hes the one who said he would let us vote then didnt.

david sandeman
  • 16:09 |
  • 02 Dec 2009
  • 0

I disagree. It is still possible to have a referendum on the Treaty. Cameron just does not have the will to do it; in some ways I see his point as the furore in Europe would be immense. It was apparent at the time he made his promise to hold a referendum that the Treaty would be ratified, so, he was quite safe in saying so in the knowledge that it would almost certainly not occur.

If he stood up now and was truthful for once instead of trading in emotional rhetoric about family, marriage, and social responsibilty; we've heard all this nonesense before in different terminology from other past leaders.

He has little time left to show he is a decisive leader rather than a pink faced public schoolboy which is how many perceive him.

Cameron's dithering may well lead us to a hung Parliament or a very small Tory majority and with the usual Northern reticence.

I am by the way a Tory supporter, wavering however!

 

 

christina speight

These comments expose clearly that the LibDem supporters and Labour voters are responsible for the extraordinary belief that the economy is getting better!  They're going to get an awful shock at the first budget after the election.  We'll be lucky to miss sovereign default and be forced into a position like Ireland, Iceland, Latvia and Greece. I say 'lucky' because nobody has yet disclosed how we will set about paying off our debts.  

david sandeman

We desperately need political leadership and which does not appear to be coming from anywhere at the moment. Next year the economic downturn will be hiitting the British public harder, at present the reality and effects of the financial problems have not hit home, but will do so, after the general election.

Whilst Cameron is a good speaker, what he says is not radical or strong enough to convince the undecided voter; seems the old story of trying to please everyone, he would earn more respect in these difficult times if he actually made some kind of Thatcherite or Churchillian stance on specific issues. This would upset some voters but earn respect from a majority.

Regardless of what side of the "Euro Fence" voters sit on he has undermined a lot of confidence in his ability to deliver promises.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Steve Yates
  • 17:28 |
  • 01 Dec 2009
  • 0

I fully expect a hung parliament after the election, i have always voted Tory in the past but cannot forget what they did to homeowners last time they were in power I would vote Labour if it wasn't for the unpopular unelected leader so will probably vote Liberal Democrat given their pledge to reduce tax for the lower paid

john

Alan. dear dear. UKIP supporter per chance? We do not live in a totalitarian regime. Perhaps you do? Who knows? I suggest before commiting such drivel to the keyboard you read up on a few of them. There are various works on Nazi Germany, Stalin's Russia or Pol Pot's Cambodia. To name but 3 past examples. There are one or two about today as well. North Korea, Iran, Burma. etc. Can I suggest you do some reading, other than conspiracy minded echo chamber websites, give it some thought and then if you still think you live in a ' totalitarian regime' then I suggest you should get out more.  

By the way what were Cammo's devious tactics?. The treaties was ratified by Brown and co. Not Cameron. Nothing now to have a referendum on, regarding Lisbon. What should he do, tilt at windmills for 6 months while the economies mired in debt?  What  you really mean is that you feel betrayed because he's not having a referendum on leaving the EU. Did he promise that? If so when?.

Barbara
  • 18:00 |
  • 01 Dec 2009
  • 0

I don't trust him after he changed his mind, I know it was ratified but with the nations's vote he could have had more bite when debating other issues with the nation behind him. We have to break away from this EU monster, if not we will be left with the dregs of immigration the EU don't want and there's nothing we can do about it, there are enough here already living off the taxpayers. No, Cameron let us all down, has did Labour, the Lib Dems don't know where they are, so what's left? The two new parties might just help this country to survive, and if we do have a hung parliment they would have to work together for the good of the country instead of party dogma, and self interests. We need change here, we've had the same for over 3-4 centuries, we need democracy restored and our freedoms, which are lacking at the moment and getting worse. Most of all we need to repeal all the stupid laws this government has imposed upon us, and their contents proposed by unelected guango's and people who have not been elected either. Lets make that change a reality.

john
  • 18:34 |
  • 01 Dec 2009
  • 0

'We need change here, we've had the same for over 3-4 centuries, we need democracy restored.. '

Barbara Is this UKIP propaganda night? Has it been the same for 3-4 centuries?. I think its actually been getting better over 400 years, not worse. What history do you read? Not much representative democracy, or rights for the masses, in 1609 or even 1709. Democracy as it is currently arranged (votes for men and women over the age of majority) didnt come into being until the 1930's. Its been a bit a slide under Brown but we still have democracy. The Tories are not perfect but if you vote to get a hung Parliament you may get Brown instead. In which case you will get all the fear most, to the power of 10. And a debt crisis to boot. 

If you think that hung parliaments bring out the best in politicians, to do what best for the people, I suggest you read up on our last hung Parliament 74-79. IMF intervention, the winter of discontent,  Unions running the country, punitive tax etc .   

oldwildboy
  • 20:14 |
  • 01 Dec 2009
  • 0

If Cameron was a man of real courage there is one thing he could do and ease the burden of council tax, and there is a simple answer---cut back on the number of councillors, over nine thousand of them, who produce nothing, and get over paid for doing so. Demand that every City Council holds a public vote for a Lord Mayor and not some councillor chosen from behind closed doors. This I find a public insult

BGarvie

Brown is totally to blame for refusing the British people a referendum over Lisbon. However, it will now fall to David Cameron to act positively. It must not be allowed to 'rest here'.

Under a Tory Government, it would only need Parliament to pass a Treaty of Lisbon (Disapplication) Bill, including the condition that it could only come into force after being approved by the British people in a referendum. And it would not be difficult to draw up an outline of such a Bill.

Billy Blofeld

Dave needs to slot Brown once and for all.  He must stop pussy footing around trying to sound attractive to the key marginals.

 

It can't be that hard.  Brown has destroyed the UK economy afterall.........