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The Political Pulse

Latest opinion research and analysis

Tories sour to Osborne

Anyone wanting asking whether the Conservative poll slide in recent weeks is fundamentally linked to the Budget need look no further than the Chancellor’s approval ratings. Among all voters, his approval rating with YouGov has fallen 18 points since the day before the budget from -22 to -40 this weekend.

However, Labour voters had such a low opinion of him already that it was scarcely possible for this to fall any further. Among those who voted Labour in 2010, he received a -71 rating prior to the Budget and -74 now, a fall of a mere 3 points.

Where Osborne’s collapse is concentrated, however, is among those who voted Conservative in the 2010 general election. Prior to the budget, these voters gave him a +33 rating, very similar to the +37 he enjoyed in November. Now this approval rating stands at just +3, a 30 point fall, with just 40% of those who voted Conservative in the 2010 election thinking Mr Osborne was doing ‘a good job’.

If this trend continues, it will prove a major headache for Conservative HQ and raise questions of the electoral credibility of a Chancellor who also serves as their chief strategist.