The view from the Regions |

Monday 12th April 2010 | 23:30

The view from the Regions

Exclusive PoliticsHome/YouGov regional voting intention data from almost 10,000 interviews over the past week reveals the different swings in different parts of the country.

In partnership with YouGov, throughout the election campaign the PoliticsHome Poll Centre will be providing the latest weekly regional voting intention data.

This week's data shows swings from Labour to the Tories across all regions since 2005. Labour retains a lead over the Tories in the North East, the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, Wales and Scotland. The Tories have a lead in the East and West Midlands, the East of England, London, the South East and the South West.

Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, said:

"A north-south divide has opened up in this election: the swing to the Conservatives is greater in the Midlands and North than in southern England. In the five regions to the north of a line from the Severn to the Wash, the average swing to the Conservatives is 7.5%; south of that line it is 5%.

"Labour remains more popular in the northern half of England than in the southern half, and will win more seats there than the Tories, even if David Cameron becomes Prime Minister; but the gap between the two halves of England is slightly narrower than it used to be.

"The movements in Wales are more like those in northern than southern England (although the small sample size means that there is a greater margin for sampling error.) The two individual regions that stand out most are Scotland, where Labour seems to be clawing ground back from the SNP, compared with the relative standings of the two parties a year ago; and the South West, which shows the smallest movements of any region.

"This is good news for the Liberal Democrats, who are defending a number of seats in the region. Across Great Britain there is currently a 6% swing from Lib Dem to Conservative; but in the South West the swing is only one per cent."

Leave a comment...

Bryan Whyte

15:51 |
13 Apr 2010
Recommended
1

Having never been asked by poll organisation, i am very cynical of their accuracy, especially the way some questions are presented

Jonathan Baldwin

18:06 |
13 Apr 2010
Recommended
2

You've got about a 1 in 30,000,000 chance of being asked - assuming it's random. But it's not. Oddly I've been asked a few times by various polling companies. A lot of it is down to where you live (post code), your income, job etc. The polls don't just pick random people (or if they do, they weight and filter the results) but aim to get the right mix of men, women, ages, occupations and so on. So even if you think the whole thing's random, your chances of being picked are slim. But given it's not random, your chances of being picked are still slim!

Margaret Rutter

18:27 |
15 Apr 2010
0

We in the constiuency of Berwick upon Tweed have been in the political wilderness for over 30 years and have stagnated please look forward to a change of political representation i.e. the conservative party!

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