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Conservative majority of 70
If a general election were held now the Conservatives would win a solid majority of 70 seats. This is substantially down from our poll last year, taken during Labour’s darkest days in summer 2008, which predicted a majority of 146.
The Conservatives have fallen back particularly in seaside towns, London and in the North-West and North-East. They continue to put in their strongest performances in the Midlands and the South, were Labour still look set to suffer a crushing defeat.
Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are increasingly holding their own. While there is still little sign of them being able to capitalise on Labour’s unpopularity and take seats from them, they are more successfully defending their seats against the Conservative advance. Last year were predicted they would be reduced to 44 seats, this year our prediction is up to 55.
The worst news is for the SNP. Last year we predicted a stunning breakthrough with the SNP taking an extra 17 seats in Scotland. This year, our poll shows the swing to the SNP down to 9%, only enough for the SNP to take two extra seats.
SKIP TO:
Introduction --- Prediction Summary --- The new political landscape --- Tactical Voting and the Personal Vote --- The Deciding Factors --- The Key Issues --- Sleaze --- Campaigning --- Changing Opinions --- Methodology --- View 2008 report
REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS:
Inner London --- Outer London --- London's Commuter Belt --- Seaside Towns --- Labour's Southern Bastions --- Urban West Midlands --- West Midlands hinterland --- East Midlands --- West Yorkshire --- North West --- North East England --- Cumbria --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: South West --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: Elsewhere --- Labour vs Lib Dems --- Welsh Marginals --- Scottish Marginals
