Insiders strongly expect May election |

Thursday 10th December 2009 | 15:00

Insiders strongly expect May election

Despite strong rumours today that a March date is likely, only 9% of insiders believe this

An overwhelming majority of political insiders believe the general election will be held in May.

Despite speculation that Gordon Brown will call an election early, 78% of the Phi100 panel are of the opinion that May is the most likely option, emphatically rejecting this suggestions. The majority rose to 88% amongst Labour-aligned insiders.

Rumours became so strong this morning that Ladbrokes stopped taking bets on a March date. A Ladbrokes spokesman told PoliticsHome that odds fell from 14-1 to 5-2 in the space of this morning, before they stopped taking bets altogether at 1:30pm.

They were particularly interested by a number of bets from Westminster, although there were 'dozens' of three-figure bets from around the country.

The Phi100 panel is comprised of those best-placed to predict the timing of the election - MPs, peers, journalists, strategists, think tank leaders and academics - providing a unique insight into collective sentiment at the highest level of British politics.

"April tax rises aren't going to be fun"

A non-aligned thought leader said, “Brown will want all the time he can get - to enjoy Number 10 and to allow for any hopeful economic signs.”

A Liberal Democrat MP said, “All this stuff about March is rubbish. April is the earliest possible date.”

A non-aligned journalist said, “Labour can't afford an election in March and local elections in May as well.”

A right-leaning think tank leader said, “I've been saying for months that March is a good idea - those April tax rises aren't going to be fun for Labour.”

Username:
Password:
Remember Me
Forgotten details?

The Live Wire

+What we do...

+Sections

+Explore

+PRO

+On the Go

Find your MP

Insider Research

Understanding the heart of Westminster