Fieldwork by YouGov PLC

YouGov interviewed 33610 people online between the 11 to 21 September. The sample was drawn from 238 marginal constituencies using the new parliamentary boundaries, classed as Labour-held Conservative target seats, seats that are notionally Conservative on new boundaries, but currently have Labour MPs, Liberal Democrat-held Conservative target seats, seats that are marginal between Labour and the Liberal democrats, target seats for the SNP and Plaid Cymru and a small selection of other seats where MPs had defected or seats had changed hands at by-elections.

Analysis by PoliticsHome.com

The data was weighted by age, gender and social class to match the demographic make up of the selected marginal seats, based on data from the ONS. it was also weighted to match the geographic and political spread of marginal seats, and by party identification. Voting intention was derived from four questions. Respondents were asked a traditional voting intention. They were then asked two contextual questions about their actual likelihood to vote, and whether they would be voting for the party they most wanted to win, or voting tactically. Finally they were asked to consider their own constituency, the candidates and parties likely to stand and say how they would vote there. Seat and swing projections in this report are based on the results of the local prompted question.

Seats and swing projections in this report are based on the results of the locally prompted question. Projections are based on the assumption that there will be a uniform swing within each group of marginal seats.

The Questions

1.   If there were a general election held tomorrow which party would you vote for?

2.   And on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 meaning definitely would vote and 1 meaning would not vote how likely are you to actually cast a vote at the next general election?

3.   As you will know, many people cast their vote at general elections for the party that they most support, many other people vote tactically – that is, for a party that isn’t their first choice, but are able to keep an even worse party from winning in their local constituency. Thinking about how you are likely to vote at the next election, will you…

- Vote for the party or candidate that I most want to win
- Vote for a party or candidate that is not my first choice, but who can stop a party I don’t like from winning
- Don’t know

4.   And thinking specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there which party’s candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency at the next general election?

Current seat figures are the swing needed to win individual seats are based on the notional 2005 results published by Anthony Wells on ukpollingreport.co.uk.

YouGov are a member of the British Polling council and abide by their rules.

SKIP TO:

Introduction  ---  Prediction Summary  ---  The new political landscape  ---  Tactical Voting and the Personal Vote  ---  The Deciding Factors  ---  The Key Issues  ---  Sleaze  ---  Campaigning  ---  Changing Opinions  ---  Methodology  ---  View 2008 report

REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS:

  Inner London  ---  Outer London  ---  London's Commuter Belt  ---  Seaside Towns  ---  Labour's Southern Bastions  ---  Urban West Midlands  --- West Midlands hinterland --- East Midlands ---  West Yorkshire  ---  North West  ---  North East England  ---  Cumbria  ---  Conservatives vs Lib Dems: South West  ---  Conservatives vs Lib Dems: Elsewhere  ---  Labour vs Lib Dems  ---  Welsh Marginals  ---  Scottish Marginals