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Tracker Results

Tracker Results

Monitoring changing public opinion every day of the week

Wednesday 2nd December 2009 | 14:51

Proof at last: MPs' morale is all about the polls

PoliticsHome data offers proof, if any were needed, that the morale of MPs is controlled by one factor above all others: polls.

It may be a statement of the obvious, but until now there has never been an attempt to prove it: despite their protestations to the contrary, the morale of MPs is consistently and closely correlated with their parties' performance in the polls.

By regularly asking the people best placed to judge - other MPs and their colleagues in Westminster - PoliticsHome regularly tracks the overall morale of MPs from different parties on a scale of 1 to 10. When you plot this data over the last year and a half against the latest poll results, the correlation is striking: polls go up, MP morale goes up. Our parliamentarians pay a lot more attention to polls than they care to admit.

PoliticsHome is the only organisation to track the morale within parties on a regular basis. The Phi100 panel consists of MPs, peers and strategists from each party, as well as leading political journalists, think tank leaders and academics that are in regular contact with the three main parties. They are asked to rate the morale within Labour, Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats on a scale of 0-10. The results are then averaged and weighted, to provide a clear picture of sentiment at the highest level of British politics.

The clearest link is within the Conservative Party. Morale was at its peak in mid-late 2008, when the party was consistently polling around 45% in the opinion polls. This coincided with strong morale – the party received ratings of 7.8 and 8 in September and October respectively. Today, morale has fallen, in line with its polling figures, which have dropped below 40%.

There is also a correlation in the Labour Party. There was a brief jump in morale in November 2008 when the party polled 35%, but otherwise the spirit within the party has been as depressed as their polling figures. However, with the polls tightening this month, feeling in the Labour Party is as good as it’s been for almost a year. Morale in the Liberal Democrats also closely follows their polling figures.

Leave a comment...

A Williams

The more cynical may also suspect that the press will from time to time set questions in surveys to garner particular results that will raise or lower a particular parties morale and so give them a story of say, "Brown's Bounce" or that Labour support has fallen below the Lib Dems or that the Tory support has collapsed and that there in going to be a "hung" parliament. 

Then again the British Press only reports events, it would never try to manipulate them to sell newspapers.

Tom FD

And Lib Dems have an inflated sense of self-worth. ;-)

Chris

Fascinating that the LibDem morale shadows the Cons poll/morale lines, rather than the LibDem poll, or even Labour  poll/morale!

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