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Scottish marginals
Our poll in 2008 showed a massive turnaround in Scotland, with Labour losing 19 seats on a massive 14.5% swing to the SNP. This year our poll shows Labour performing much better in Scotland and the projected changes are far more pedestrian. The Conservatives now gain only one seat – in contrast to their strength in Wales, they are still struggling to return from their 1997 wipeout. The Liberal Democrats would also gain one seat in Edinburgh South. The SNP make a major advance in terms of support, up at 30% compared to only 19% in 2005.
However, on a uniform swing this would bring little in the way of seats – they would gain only Dundee West and Ochil and South Perthshire, narrowly missing out in Kilmarnock and Loudoun.
Seat-by-seat prediction
SKIP TO:
Introduction --- Prediction Summary --- The new political landscape --- Tactical Voting and the Personal Vote --- The Deciding Factors --- The Key Issues --- Sleaze --- Campaigning --- Changing Opinions --- Methodology --- View 2008 report
REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS:
Inner London --- Outer London --- London's Commuter Belt --- Seaside Towns --- Labour's Southern Bastions --- Urban West Midlands --- West Midlands hinterland --- East Midlands --- West Yorkshire --- North West --- North East England --- Cumbria --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: South West --- Conservatives vs Lib Dems: Elsewhere --- Labour vs Lib Dems --- Welsh Marginals --- Scottish Marginals
