Pollster who called election victory for Tories predicts Brexit win

Posted On: 
8th June 2016

Brexit will win the EU referendum on 23 June, the polling expert who was first to predict a Conservative majority in last year’s general election has declared.

Lord Hayward has predicted Brexit will win the EU referendum
PA Images

Robert Hayward said the polls had “got it wrong” and the “balance of probability” was that Britain would quit the bloc.

Most polls so far have given Remain the lead, but two over last weekend predicted Brexit would win in 15 days' time.

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Lord Hayward said working class Labour supporters in the North and Midlands wanted to quit the bloc, while the desire to remain of middle class voters working in finance had been overstated.

“Unless something substantial changes in the remaining days of the EU Referendum campaign, the balance of probability is that the nation will vote to Leave,” he told the Sun.

And the Tory peer added: “The polls have got it wrong.”

He said the Government’s increasingly grim illustrations of Brexit - dubbed 'Project Fear' by critics - were proving ineffective.

Lord Hayward was also the first to predict the “shy Tory” phenomenon in 1992 when John Major beat Neil Kinnock.

But the Remain supporter said he hoped he was wrong this time round.


Elsewhere, France is apparently gearing up to give Britain a hard time if it quits the EU in a bid to dissuade other countries from doing the same.

An EU diplomat told Politico allowing countries to quit the bloc but “keep all the advantages” was a “terrible message” for the rest of the member states.

The diplomat added: “[A painless Brexit] is impossible if we want to keep the rest of the EU present.”