CBI: Brexit could cost 5% of GDP by 2020
The business lobby group asked accountancy firm PwC to model UK growth under different scenarios after Brexit.
The accountancy firm found that annual growth within the EU would be 2.3% to the end of the decade, compared to an average of 1.5% if the UK had a free trade agreement with the EU, or 0.9% if it operated under World Trade Organisation rules.
The CBI says that could translate to almost 5% of GDP and 950,000 jobs.
“The savings from reduced EU budget contributions and regulation are greatly outweighed by the negative impact on trade and investment,” said CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn.
"Even in the best case this would cause a serious shock to the UK economy."
The picture after 2020 shows higher growth under the Brexit scenarios, though not quickly enough to make up for the initial loss forecast.
The free trade agreement would result in growth of 2.7% and the WTO deal 2.6% in the five years to 2025, compared to 2.3% within the EU.
Vote Leave’s Matthew Elliott said: “If we want to take back control and strike the kind of free trade deal the CBI refuses to even consider, the only safe option is to Vote Leave."