EXPLAINED: How the new Prime Minister could be kicked out of office on day one

The winner of the race to replace Theresa May might have to fend off a motion of no confidence to keep their fledgling Government alive.

Since 1895, governments have been defeated on questions of confidence on four occasions, most recently Jim Callaghan losing by a single vote in 1979, and here is how the process might work:

What is a vote of no confidence?

As the House of Commons Library explains, until recently there were several different ways an administration could be brought down and an early election triggered.

On top of explicit motions, “confidence could also be implied in big set-piece votes like the Queen’s Speech or the Budget”, it said in a research paper, and governments could also designate a particular vote as being a “matter of confidence”, in which defeat would be a resigning matter.

These mechanisms relied on convention, which David Cameron sought to codify when in power, resulting in the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA) – more on this later.

Under this an early general election could only be called if two-thirds of MPs voted for it, and matters of confidence have to be worded in a very specific way, and must say: “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.”

Any MP can propose such a motion, but it can be ignored. However, if the leader of the opposition – currently Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn - introduces it then convention dictates that the Government must provide time for a debate to take place.

So how would it work?

The current timetable for the election of a new leader for the Conservatives will see either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt crowned on Tuesday, 23 July.

Theresa May is then set to take her final Prime Minister’s Questions on the following day, before driving to Buckingham Palace, resigning as Prime Minister and asking the Queen to call for Mrs May’s successor to come and form a new Government.

The House of Commons is set to rise at the end of the day after that - Thursday, 25 July - so if Mr Corbyn wants to lay down a motion of no confidence before MPs disappear for their summer break, he would have to table it on the Wednesday, and it would have to be debated and voted on the day after, with a simple majority of MPs required to pass.

Would a no confidence vote pass?

Labour have tried this once already, tabling a vote the day after Mrs May suffered a record defeat on her Brexit deal, but it lost 325 to 306.

Since then there have been several Conservative defections, and the Government as it currently stands has a working majority of just four*.

So it would only take two Tory or DUP MPs to vote the other way to make it a tie, or three to give the opposition MPs, provided they all voted they had no confidence in the Government, a majority.

In recent weeks Conservatives Ken Clarke, Philip Lee and Dominic Grieve have all committed publicly to voting against a Tory government in a motion of no confidence if that were the only way of preventing no deal Brexit.

And the defence minister Tobias Ellwood has also claimed “a dozen” Tory MPs could do the same, meaning if Mr Johnson – who has been clear he is willing to pursue a no deal Brexit - was to become PM, there could be the numbers for the motion to pass.

What happens then?

The short answer is: nobody really knows. As the Institute for Government (IfG) puts it: “We are in uncharted territory.”

Under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act, once the motion passes there are two weeks in which to try and sort things out.

But as the IfG say: “The FTPA provision has never been tried, so this would be new territory. It is not at all clear what the 14-day period is meant to achieve.

“It could be the same government trying to pass a second vote, having been defeated in the first. It could be a new Conservative Prime Minister attempting a second vote.

“In theory, it could allow for a minority Labour government to be formed and attempt to pass a confidence vote, but that would require the current Prime Minister to resign.”

Essentially, the new PM would have to see if they could convince any of those MPs who voted against him to change their mind, or resign and allow Labour to try and form a Government.

But as Catherine Haddon, senior fellow at the IfG, explains: “Here we hit a big ambiguity at the heart of the legislation: who governs during the next 14 days?”

For the opposition to take over it would require a new motion, stating "that this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government" being passed.

But the Commons Library suggests the strict wording “means that its leader must have been appointed Prime Minister by the Queen before he or she can test the opinion of the House by putting the second motion”.

As Ms Haddon asks: “So must the outgoing PM immediately resign and pass the reins to the leader of the Opposition, even if their chances of assembling a parliamentary majority look slender?

“Or should they hang on and await the outcome of negotiations, despite having lost a vote of confidence? Both solutions would be ugly and controversial.”

So how could the deadlock be resolved?

Any confidence vote proposed by Mr Corbyn to make him PM is unlikely to pass, as the Lib Dems, Change UK and several other independent MPs explicitly say they would not support an administration led by him.

So at the end of those 14 days, if no agreement is reached then Messrs Johnson or Hunt would have to go the Palace and call for the dissolution of Parliament and a general election.

Under the FTPA that would take place 25 working days later, meaning polling day would be exactly seven weeks after the no confidence motion, potentially on Thursday, September 12.

Although there is only one day when the Commons is sitting once new PM is installed recess, the Commons Library suggests Parliament could be recalled for a confidence vote to take place.

Whether Speaker John Bercow would interrupt his summer holiday for such a vote remains to be seen. A spokesman for his office declined to discuss what would happen in such a scenario.

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*This is based on the fact it has command of 311 Conservative MPs, plus 10 from the DUP, making 321 out of a total of 650.

All of the opposition members added together makes 317, with 246 Labour MPs, 35 SNP, 12 Liberal Democrats, 14 independents, 5 Change UK The Independent Group, 4 Plaid Cymru and 1 Green MP.

There is also the neutral Speaker, Tory deputy speaker Eleanor Laing, Labour deputy speakers Sir Lindsay Hoyle and Dame Rosie Winterton, all of whom do not vote in the Commons.

There are 7 abstentionist MPs from Sinn Fein, along with the current vacancy in Brecon and Radnorshire after Tory Chris Davies was kicked out of Parliament after being convicted of expenses fraud.

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