Shock poll puts Tories 21 seats short of majority

Posted On: 
5th June 2017

The Conservatives could be left 21 seats shy of a majority at the general election, according to fresh analysis.

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn
Credit: 
PA Images

YouGov’s daily study of voting intentions puts the Tories on 305 seats, down from 330 in 2015, while Labour are on course to hit 268, up from 229.

The projection originates from a 4-point lead for the Conservatives in terms of vote share - 42% to Labour's 38%.

Tory lead between 1 and 12 points in latest pre-election polls

Labour surge continues as new poll shows 10-point swing away from Tories

Tory lead over Labour down to just three points in new poll

Shock poll predicts hung parliament as Tories lose majority and Labour surge

The figures, if replicated on election day, could see centrist and left-leaning parties claim a combined majority of one seat however.

The poll would see the SNP representation drop to 42 from 56 in 2015, the Liberal Democrats up four to 13, Plaid Cyrmu on two while the Greens would hold their single seat.

Ukip are expected to be left without any MPs.

Meanwhile a separate Survation poll for Good Morning Britain showed the Conservative lead over Labour has shrunk from 17% to just 1% since the beginning of May.

Elsewhere however a fresh ICM poll for the Guardian gives the Tories a comfortable 11-point lead over Labour, albeit down one point from their last analysis.

Full results of YouGov's study can be seen below:

On Saturday the YouGov model suggested the Tory majority could fall to 308, with Labour up to 261.