Polls show election race tightening but Tories still on course for victory

Posted On: 
28th May 2017

A slew of polls suggest the race for 10 Downing St has tightened considerably in recent weeks - but the Tories remain on course for victory. 

Jeremy Corbyn campaigning in Yorkshire this week

This weekend's set of surveys show considerable variation, with pollsters ICM and ComRes putting the Tories 14 and 12 points ahead respectively, while YouGov and ORB have narrower leads of seven and six points.

But even that 14-point lead with ICM is well down on their poll from 14 May, which gave the Conservatives a massive 20-point lead. Similarly the Tories have fallen sharply from the +18 they registered with YouGov just two weeks ago.

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Although Labour may take heart from some of the data, polls have tended to overstate support for the party in previous general elections - in the run-up to the 2015 election several gave Ed Miliband a lead over David Cameron, only for Labour to end up almost 7% behind on polling day.


As well as the top-line figures, the ComRes survey suggested Labour's messages on key domestic areas are cutting through with the public. 

Jeremy Corbyn's party had a huge 23-point lead over the Tories when respondents were asked who had the best policies for older people dependent on social care.

Labour were also five points (42%-37%) ahead when voters had to choose which party has "the best policies for people like me and my family", and 13 points ahead on policies for "hardworking families". 

However the Conservatives enjoy equally substantial leads on immigration, negotiating Brexit and security - an issue which has come to the forefront of the campaign since the Manchester bombing.

On who will keep the UK safe from terrorism, voters back Theresa May over Mr Corbyn by a huge 42%-16% margin, while she has a 26-point lead (42%-16%) over who is the best leader to oversee Brexit negotiations.