Tory lead between 1 and 12 points in latest pre-election polls

Posted On: 
4th June 2017

The Conservatives lead Labour by between one and 12 points and remain on course for election victory, according to a raft of new polls published this weekend. 

Theresa May campaigning in Yorkshire yesterday

Although the differences between individual companies remain substantial, an average of all polls suggests Theresa May will still enjoy a majority on 9 June. 

However the recent tightening in the race with Labour suggests the Prime Minister could fall well short of the landslide many were predicting when she called the snap election in mid-April. 

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ComRes give the Conservatives the biggest lead of 12 points, with both leading parties up a point on the company's previous poll, while Survation puts the gap at just one point - within the usual polling margin of error. 

ICM have an 11-point gap, ORB nine points, Opinium six points and YouGov four points. 

YouGov has produced the most optimistic analysis for Labour so far, with a model published last week suggesting the party could gain seats and force a hung Parliament. 

Every survey published yesterday puts Jeremy Corbyn on course to achieve a higher share of the vote than his predecessor Ed Miliband, who got 30.4% in the 2015 general election.

However there is uncertainty as to how much of the increase in Labour's share of the vote is from younger voters and previous non-voters, whose turnout at the ballot box is difficult to predict compared to older voters, who are more likely to vote Conservative.