NEW By-election Breakdown 15/02/2018

They are calling it Super Thursday on the blogs. A by-election bonanza for the election geeks of the UK - 14 today with another 12 next week too. Hold onto your hats people, it is going to be a mild ride.

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East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster (Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP)
2007 election results: Con 812/787, Lab 335/316
2011 Cons x2 elected unopposed
2015 Cons x2 elected unopposed

Given this ward has been uncontested in 2 of the last 3 elections we suspect it will not provide much of an upset tonight for the Conservatives and the area’s MP Peter Bone.

That said it will give voters in this country the opportunity to vote on the issue of Northamptonshire County Council imposing a limit on all new spending due to budgetary constraints. Thankfully for the polling station and counting staff here in Higham Ferrers Lancaster ward, they will be paid by the District Council not the County Council for their time today. 

Clucking hell! One significant local issue which might be coming up on the doorsteps here is the potential construction of a huge intensive poultry farming plant potentially housing up to as many as 4.7million chickens per year. Residents have been urged to complain to their local planning department with their objections. 

 

Predictions: Con Hold

Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley (Resident resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Resident)
2011 election results: Res 795/609/571, Con 711/680/656,Lab 216/212, /LD 125/125/79
2015  election results: Res 1353/1110/1018, Con 963/930/928,Lab 429/420/383

We can’t see much of an upset here. This looks like a hold for the Residents Assocs of Epsom and Ewell candidate. Labour seem a bit desperate in their plea on twitter that one extra independent represents “more of the same” but this borough has a strong tradition of electing RA candidates against national trends, and despite electing Chris Grayling as MP time and again we predict a hold for the RA candidate.

 

 

Prediction: Residents Assocs of Epsom and Ewell Hold

Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert (SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green, UKIP)
2007 election results: SNP 1916*, Ind 1566*, Lab 1557*, Con 576, Green 302, Ind 143, SSP 72 -* SNP, Ind and Lab all elected at stage 1
2012 election results: SNP 1387*, Lab 1235*, Ind 1018*, Con 376, SNP 299, Ind 166- *SNP elected stage 1, Lab elected stage 2, Ind elected stage 4
2017 election results: SNP 1898*, Con 1368*,Ind 1134*, Lab 884, Green 216,Ind 128- *SNP elected stage 1, Con elected stage 4, Ind elected stage 6

note -all votes listed above refer to first preference votes.#

Bonnybridge in Bonny Scotland is the location of our next contest, triggered by the death of the SNP’s Tom Coleman who had served as a Falkirk Councillor since 1999.

Labour have been working this seat very hard in an attempt to translate their creeping polling numbers into something more concrete. They are fielding former Falkirk Council Leader Linda Gow, who was recently swept aside by the Tory tidal wave. Obviously feeling confident of a possible victory, Gow has been reinforced by a veritable Who’s Who of Scottish Labour talent. In the past week there has been no fewer than seven MSPs out on the doors, including Leader Leonard, Anas Sarwar, and family favourite Jackie Baillie. 

 

 

Overly presidential campaigning has been touted as one of the reasons for Theresa May’s dismal performance in the last general election, but that message has clearly not reached north of the border, where Ruth Davidson’s Scottish Conservative and Unionist candidate has had to play second fiddle to the Dear Leader whose headshot swamps out poor...err what's his name, thingy-ma-jig, och you know, the tory guy.

 

 

However, our prediction is that this seat will be held by the SNP. Their candidate, Niall Coleman, is the son of the deceased councillor, and has been fighting hard to win his father’s seat. With a huge incumbency advantage, and a strong ground operation, we see this seat staying yellow.

Prediction: SNP Hold

 

North Norfolk DC, Worstead (Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
2007 election results: LD 555, Con 369
2011 election results: LD 465, Con 287, Lab 159, Green 84
2015 election results: Con 597, LD 475, Green 180, Lab 175

With the Lib Dems designated as an endangered species it is not often that they get a by-election in one of their MP’s backyards. 

This contest is going to be a challenge for the defending North Norfolk Conservatives as it comes in the wake of nine resignations/defections, over ⅓ of their total councillors. This has resulted in the Tories losing overall control of the council as well as senior positions on all of the Council’s important committees. We can’t imagine that CCHQ have been rushing to pile resources into this shambles.

In such a tight seat, a strong ground presence can make the difference between winning and losing. The Lib Dems have been out this morning with a pre-dawn raid to remind voters to get out and vote, and it seems they have managed to get those dreadful diamond signs littered around the town.

 

 

With the local Conservatives in tatters, and a strong ground game from the Lib Dems, we think this seat is prime #LibDemFightback territory

Prediction: Lib Dem Gain

 

Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh (Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
2011 election results: Con 889 (L.Evans),Ind 884/561, LD 500, Lab 475
2015 election results: Con 1308/1159, Ind 985/592 (L.Evans)/516, Lab 597, Green 585, LD 508
Dec 2016 by-election: LD 680, Con 470, UKIP 89, Lab 81

Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East (Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, LD)
2007 election results: Con 1221/1214/1169, LD 1106/1022/953
2011 election results: Con 1197/1095/1041, Ind 1129/1065, LD 599/569/535
2015 election results: Con 1687/1645/1406, LD 1295/1274, Ind 940/817/687, Green 858, Lab 827

Both of these seats are in the former parliamentary seat of Teignbridge which elected a Lib Dem MP from 2001 up until boundary changes created the new seat of Newton Abbot in 2010. Now Chudleigh is in the Central Devon constituency and Dawlish Central & North East is in Newton Abbot. We predict that both of these seats will be gained by the Liberal Democrats tonight, given the party’s recent form in local by-elections.

Prediction: Lib Dem Gain x 2

Tendring DC, St Paul's (UKIP sitting as Independent resigned - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, 2 Ind)
2007 election results: TF 1106/1086, Con 440/384
2011 election results: TF 945/928, Con 680/618
2015 election results: UKIP 940/760, Con 838/611, TF 766/754
note: TF = Tendring First
May 2016 by-election UKIP 424, Con 311, Ind (Hones) 248, Lab 148

Poor old UKIP. Every single time one of their seats comes up for election following a death, a resignation or a disqualification they lose the seat. We don’t see this run of form changing even though this ward is within the last parliamentary seat they held, won by Douglas Carswell in 2015 as UKIP before he subsequently left the party.

Whether this seat might give the Kippers a result to be proud of as they head to Birmingham on Saturday for the Special Conference to decide Henry Bolton’s fate, we suspect it will go the way of the Clacton constituency in 2017 be a Conservative gain.

Prediction: Conservative Gain

York UA, Holgate (Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green)
2007 election results: Lab 1490/1413/1330, LD 1286/1204/1116, Green 691, Con 645/604/465, BNP 463
2011 election results: Lab 2211/1991/1793 ,LD 1263/1193/1143, Con 623/474, Green 449/360, BNP 195
2015 election results: Lab 2183/2037/1789,Con 1516/1221/957, Green 1273/954/876, LD 1018/849/812, UKIP 924, Ind 729, TUSC 326

Remember the Conservative Lib Dem Coalition? The residents of the York Unitary Authority still have one! With 14 Conservative seats and 12 Lib Dem seats out of 47 seats in total.

Labour currently has 14 councillors plus this vacancy, with four Green councillors and two independents making up the rest of the opposition.

We have consulted widely on this and have even contacted a resident in the ward, who would normally vote Lib Dem, but has tactically voted Labour! Whilst the Conservatives appear to be taking this contest seriously we predict that Labour will hold on to Holgate.

Prediction: Labour Hold

 

Lancashire CC, Morecambe North (Conservative sitting as Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
2009 election results: Con 1972, Lab 837, Green 659

2013 election results: Con 1271, Lab 710, Ind 639, Green 132
2017 election results: Con 2404, Lab 838, LD 310, Green 253

Whilst this constituency (Morecambe and Lunesdale) is another marginal that Labour will need to win to get back into Downing Street at the next election, Conservative MP David Morris held on here in 2017 by 1,399 votes.

On the basis of the last three local elections here, Morecambe North division will elect another Conservative Councillor in this byelection. 

Prediction: Conservative Hold

North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor (Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
2007 election results: Lab 760/677, Con 218
2011 election results: Lab 928/891, Con 230/212
2015 election results: Lab 1103/901, UKIP 439, Con 319/275

Whilst this constituency provided an upset in 2017 when popular Deputy Speaker Natascha Engel, a Labour MP since 2005 lost her seat to Tory Lee Rowley.

We understand this seat is proving to be a bit of a close run thing especially considering the Lib Dems have not contested this ward for many years but we are predicting a Labour hold.  Worth noting too that Labour has recently selected its PPC here and of course they will be looking to regain this seat at the next General Election whenever it comes. 

 

 

Prediction: Labour Hold

West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South (Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
2007 election results: LD 493, Con 492
2010 election results:Con 1642, LD 464
2011 election results: Con 893, LD 184, Lab 129, Green 83
2014 election results: Con 536, UKIP 285, Lab 91,Green 72
2015 election results: Con 1363, UKIP 342, Lab 254, LD 133, Green 124

This ward is in David Cameron’s former constituency of Witney and while as you can see it did return a Lib Dem councillor in the dim and distant past in 2007, they only had a majority of 1 vote! We have seen the current MP Robert Courts has been out campaigning here for the by-election and we predict a comfortable hold for the Conservatives.

 

 

 

Prediction: Conservative Hold

 

Doncaster MB, Armthorpe (Labour died - 2 candidates: Lab, Ind)
2010 election results: Lab 2369, Ind 1258, LD 877, Con 845, EDP 692
2011 election results: Lab 1958, Ind 1410, Con 415
2012 election results: Lab 1677, Ind 1289, Con 226
2014 election results: Lab 1286, UKIP 975, Ind 866, Con 231, TUSC 116
2015 election results: Lab 2709/2496/2386, UKIP 2260, Con 1247, LD 638, Green 605, Ind 573
2017 election results: Lab 1479/1336/1314, UKIP 1045/767, Con 787, Green 328

A tough contest to call as Labour square off against a lone independent. UKIP and the Conservatives have stepped aside in this seat, leaving independent Martin Williams to attempt to Labour stronghold alone. With the numbers as they stand, he shouldn’t have a chance, but we suspect this one may go to the wire.

Prediction: Labour Hold

Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers (Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP)
2009 election results: Con 2245, Lab 690
2013 election results:  Con 1184, UKIP 697, Lab 385, Ind 299, LD116
2017 election results: Con 1762, Lab 552,  LD 327, UKIP 290.

We predict that Higham Ferrers will comfortably re-elect a Conservative candidate!

Prediction: Conservative Hold

Halton UA, Halton Castle (Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, No Description)
2010 election results: Lab 1398, LD 714,Con 283
2011 election results: Lab 1067, HLIP 323, LD 250
2012 election results: Lab 930, LD 195
2014 election results: Lab 956, UKIP 413, TUSC (D.Whyte) 72
2015 election results: Lab 1985,UKIP 487, LD 220, TUSC (D.Whyte)142
2016 election results: Lab 1035,UKIP 211, Ind (D.Whyte) 115

This is a safe ward for Labour and we predict it will be a comfortable hold in this byelection.

Prediction: Labour Hold

A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.​

So far we have predicted 38 out of 46 results correctly.

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