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NEW By-election Breakdown 22/02/2018

John Johnston & Sam Webber | PoliticsHome

11 min read Partner content

PoliticsHome looks at this week's local by-elections and predicts who's in, who's out, who's lost the plot.


Last week this feature had a pretty good week. We managed to correctly call the 14 by-election contests correctly (in one case the winning party only had a majority of 11!) and the article took on a life of its own too with over 4,3000 readers to date.

Tonight we will struggle to pull off that feat, but nonetheless offer our thoughts on the 11 contests taking place which incidentally was 12 contests until yesterday afternoon when a Judge cancelled the Wigan contests and reinstated the independent councillor. We have the full scoop on that below!

So the remaining 11 contests takes us from Minehead in West Somerset & Bridport in Dorset on the south coast along to Chichester and Bognor Regis and also contests in Hertfordshire, Lichfield, Lincolnshire, Torfaen in south Wales and Selkirkshire in the Scottish Borders.

Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle Ward (Conservative resigned, 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Blue Revolution)
2011 election results: Con 727/505, BBI 337, UKIP(F. Ransome) 303
2015 election results: Con 828/687, UKIP 736/699

(note: this is a 2-member ward. BBI= Boston Bypass Independents)

As much as we would relish this being a dead-heat after 3 recounts with the nail biting prospect of UKIP and ‘Blue Revolution’ having to draw straws, we suspect it will be a Conservative hold. This falls within Boston and Skegness which was the number one target seat for UKIP in 2015 and Conservative Matt Warman held them off by 10% and over 4,300 votes. In 2017 sensing victory the then UKIP leader Dr Paul Nuttall plumped for Boston and Skegness to run in himself. He amassed a grand total of 3,308 votes and 7.7% of the vote. Like we said at the top our hunch is a Tory hold.

Prediction: Conservative Hold


Chichester DC Fishbourne Ward (Lib Dem resigned, 3 candidates: Con, Lab & LD)
2011 election results: LD 571, Con 403
2015 election results: LD 719,Con 522,Green 161

Given the decent run of form the Liberal Democrats have in recent weeks picking up three seats last Thursday alone, Fishbourne out to be a comfortable hold for the party despite a grumble from a Conservative Brexit supporter (wonder who she will be voting for?) about the previous councillor’s attendance and the fact that the carpet-bagging Lib Dem candidate doesn't live in the town, we would still say a comfortable hold.

 

Prediction: Lib Dem Hold

Dorset CC Bridport Division (Lib Dem resigned, 4 candidates: Lab, Green, LD & Con)
2013 election result Bridport: LD 863, Con 664, UKIP 463,  Lab 404, Green 189
2013 election result Bride Valley: Con 1106, UKIP 596, Lab 343, LD 298, Green 257
2017 election results (new 2 member division) Bridport: LD 2490/1840, Con 2415/2244, Green 810/490, Lab 783/690

&

West Dorset DC Bridport North Ward (Lib Dem resigned, 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Green & LD)
2011 election result Bradpole: Con 461, Green 157, LD 145
2011 election results Bridport North:(2) LD 714/433, Con 511/464, Green 398, Lab 343
2015 election results Bridport North:(3) LD 1921/ 942/830, Con 1526/1286/1283, Green 824, Lab 647/509/465

We will effectively treat this as the same contest which arises following the resignation of Lib Dem Cllr Ros Kayes. She stood against the sitting MP for West Dorset Oliver Letwin in 2015 coming a fairly distant 2nd. On a local level she also sat on on West Dorset District Council from 2007 and on Dorset County Council since 2013. Given the 2017 result we are torn on this DCC contest but suspect the Conservatives have the edge due to the size of the division and the removal of Ros Kayes’ personal vote which very narrowly enabled her to top the poll but only by 75 votes with her running mate 650 votes behind.

This contest will be a case as ever of differential turnout. Local sources tell us the Tories are always better at turning out their vote here than the other parties and often do so in high numbers. In communities like this with high numbers of retired residents who often now prefer to vote by post, these votes will be safely in the bag before polling day too. Our hunch is the the Conservatives will gain the County seat but that the Lib Dems will retain the smaller District seat.


Prediction:
Dorset CC Bridport Division - Conservative gain
West Dorset DC Bridport North Ward - Lib Dem hold


Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green (Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green)
2013 election results: Con 1462, UKIP 648, Lab 391, BNP 52
2017 election results: Con 2108, Lab 572,UKIP 369, LD 190


This should be a comfortable hold for the Conservatives though from our assessment on twitter it seems Labour are having a good stab at it from a long way behind on 2017 figures. Joan Ryan MP has come to knock on some doors and even the region’s Labour MEP has sent a good luck tweet. We fear it won't be enough though but one to watch.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Prediction: Conservative Hold

North Kesteven DC, Eagle,Swinderby and Witham St Hughs Ward (Independent died, 3 candidates: LD, Lincolnshire Inds & Con)
2007: Con 948/473, Ind 599, UKIP 188
2011: Con unopp, Ind unopp
2015 : Con unopp, Ind unopp

The numbers above indicate this is usually a polite electoral stitch up between the Conservatives and an Independent, with only one a piece standing for the ward and therefore elected unopposed in 2011 and 2015. This time following a resignation of the Independent Councillor, the local Conservatives are standing. Our hunch is the Lincolnshire Independents could take this, but we would not be at all surprised either by a Tory gain.  
Little known fact about this part of Lincolnshire is that Baroness Thatcher took her title: Baroness Thatcher of Kesteven from this area having grown up in Grantham, which is 30 miles south of this large rural ward.

Prediction: (Lincolnshire) Independent Hold


Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire (Conservative resigned following appointment as MSP - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, 2 Ind)
2012 election results: Con 799(2), SNP 671, LD 649(4), Ind 597 (4), Borders 299, Ind 276
2017 election results: Con 1081 (1), SNP 888(6), Ind  514(8), Lab 147, LD 134, Green 122

A borders battle between Ruth Davidson’s Scottish Conservative and Unionist party candidate, and the SNP.

Once again, the Tory candidate is having to take a back seat to #TeamRuth as the omnipotent Tory Leader takes precedent on the election materials. With a message discipline that must make Theresa May jealous, a gaggle of MPs and MSPs have been out on the doors for Ruth Davidson’s candidate.

 

 

The yellow team have called up SNP special forces operative, Margaret Ferrier, who has once again been deployed behind enemy lines to try and upset the Tories chances of a hold. Since her defeat in the 2017 General Election, Ferrier has been a constant presence in by-election bust-ups all over Scotland, and is now looking to help SNP candidate John Mitchell scoop himself a seat.
 

 

 


However, this contest takes place in the constituency of John Lamont MP, the safest Tory seat in Scotland, so we are confidently calling this one for TeamRuth.

Prediction: Ruth Davidson’s Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party Hold


Wigan MB, Bryn Ward (Ind resigned, 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Ind, LD)
2010 election results: Lab 2274, Ind 1697, CA 609, BNP 531, Con 525
2011 election results: Ind 1517, Lab 1271, Con 437, WBGS 320
2012 election results: ind 1516, Lab 1352, Con146
2014 election results: Lab 1190, UKIP (Jones) 724, Ind 625,CA 289, Con 131
2015 election results: Lab 2245, WIN 1717, UKIP (Jones) 948, Con 378, Ind 267, CA 141
2016 election results: Ind (Jones) 1200, Lab 1123, UKIP 438, Con 161

SCANDAL AND HIGH COURT DRAMA.

In a shocking turn of events, todays Wigan by-election has been CANCELLED with only hours to go, due to a court injunction. A top judge ruled the contest ‘not-lawful’ after it found that the returning officer had started for the proceedings for a by-election without the candidate actually resigning.

The row broke out after the independent candidate ‘hinted’ at resigning, which prompted the Council to start proceedings into calling a by-election. With only hours to go, the top judge stepped in and halted the contest from going ahead.

 

 

The Council concerned was clearly not happy but chose not to appeal the ruling to protect the public purse from any additional costs. Presumably that murmour you can hear around Wigan Town Hall is the sound of a pile of postal votes being shredded?

With angry councillors and hurt feelings aplenty, this council is certainly one to watch.

Prediction: No Contest


Torfaen UA, Trevethin Ward (Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, Green, 2 Ind)
2012 election results: Lab 399/323, Ind 227/169, PC 137
2017 election results: Lab 424/372, Ind 400/289  

note: PV= People's Voice.

This should be a Labour hold, though previous figures from 2017 indicate that one of the Independents could spring a surprise. We will play it safe and call it for Labour. Czech mate.

Prediction: Labour Hold


Arun DC , Marine Ward (Conservative died, 4 candidates: Con, Ind, Lab, LD)
2011 election results: Ind 605, Con 539, LD 271/253, Lab 252, BNP 136
2015 election results: Ind 994, Con 857, UKIP 774, Lab 631.

We have a hunch based on the previous figures here from 2015 and no UKIP candidate standing in the byelection that this seat will be won by the independent candidate. You might scoff but some of our more ridiculous predictions have come true in recent weeks so let's see what happens here.

Prediction: Independent Gain

West Somerset DC, Minehead South Ward (Independent sitting as UKIP resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
2007 election results (3):  Ind  822/706/631, Con 571/442/331
2011 election results (2): Con 520/365, Lab 520, Ind 335, Green 259
2015 election results(2): Con 766, Ind 590, Lab 385, Green 355

Sources in the South West tell us this could well be another case for the #LibDemFightback. Canvass returns look good though we suspect it will be fairly close and recall last week one of the two results we called correctly in Devon only had a majority of 11 so it could well be equally as close. Given the Lib Dems haven’t stood in the ward for at least the last 3 contests it would be an impressive result to even come close to taking the seat.


Prediction: Lib Dem Gain

Lichfield DC, Stowe Ward (Conservative resigned, 5 candidates: LD, Conservative, Green, Lab, Something New)
2011 election results: Con 841/799/729, Lab 483/440/411, LD 294/249/210, UKIP  159
2015 election results: Con 1791/1484/1443. Lab 989(Palmer)/ 862/857, Green 635 (Hayward)

We are very intrigued by ‘Something New’ standing in this contest but probably only for the name. It will probably be a Conservative hold given the most recent contest above but Labour will be looking to take the seat.

Prediction: Conservative Hold

(vote totals are first preferences, the number in brackets indicates the stage at which winning candidates were elected)

A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.​

So far we have predicted 52 out of 60 results correctly.

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