Menu
Thu, 28 March 2024

Newsletter sign-up

Subscribe now
The House Live All
Health
Mission possible: Delivering tomorrow’s homes today Partner content
Economy
Press releases
By BAE Systems Plc

NEW By-election Breakdown 01/03/2018

PoliticsHome

7 min read Partner content

PoliticsHome looks at this week's local by-elections and predicts who's in, who's out, who's lost the plot.


The Beast from the East has paralysed the UK with heavy snow storms, bitter winds and travel chaos. Campaigners have faced arctic conditions as they battle through their wards on the hunt for electoral glory. Luckily the heating is on in PoliticsHome towers, so we are here for another week of goof and gaffes from the front-lines of UK politics.

Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott Ward (Conservative died, 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
2012 election results: Con 1296, Lab 361, LD 165
2014 election results: Con 1302, UKIP 474, Lab 385, LD 171
2015 election results: Con 2669,Lab 672,  UKIP 517, LD 319, Green 204
2016 election results: Con 1366, Lab 405, UKIP 348

note: BFCP = Basingstoke First Community Party

Basingstoke, a former resident informs us, is a Tory leaning former market town, which has expanded massively since the 1940s onwards, as part of the London overspill. It is now the biggest town in Hampshire with Southampton and Portsmouth both classed as cities. It is home to some huge firms in the insurance, telecommunications, IT and electronics sectors including the UK HQ’s of De La Rue, Sun Life Financial, The Automobile Association, ST Ericsson, GAME, Motorola, Barracuda Networks, Eli Lilly and Co.

 

 

 

 

This ward is set to be a comfortable Conservative hold, but the recent campaigning does seem to have focussed on appearances of the pet dogs of both the Labour and Tory candidates on election leaflets and social media posts. Will this result be a dog's breakfast for the Tories or is the local Labour party barking up the wrong tree? We suspect the the pedigree of this contest, speaking frankly chums, has been poor and the wintry conditions might well mean a reduced turnout 

Prediction: Conservative Hold
 

Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannanshire North Ward (SNP resigned, 5 candidates: Lab, SNP, Green, LD, Con)
2007 election results: SNP 1256(1)/ 950(2)/256, Lab 1099(1)/351, Con 333, LD 322(8),SSCUP 166, SSP 75
2012 election results: SNP 728(1)/ 544(6)/504, Lab 663(5)/351, Ind 540(6), Con 157, LD 136
2017 election results: Con 969(1), SNP 672(5)/660(5)/292, Lab 644(8)/432, LD 206

Note: candidates elected are shown emboldened, and number in brackets indicating stage at which elected.
SSCUP= Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party, SSP =Scottish Socialist Party

Icy, grey and hostile conditions face the candidates in this Scottish by-election, and that is just the reception on the doors. Hardy campaigners have been trudging around the deep snow hoping that they can convince voters to turn out into the Red weather warning conditions to vote for their candidate.

Team Ruth became Team Struth last week as the defending Conservatives fell victim to the Scottish STV voting system. They took the first preferences with a strong 1,247 votes, but independent candidate came from behind to scoop the seat at the SEVENTH round. The Conservatives might be hoping that the transferable vote Gods will be smiling on them today as they look to scoop this seat from the Nats. 

Once again #TeamRuth have gone for the over-the-top advertising of the Tory leader instead of focusing of the candidate. It could prove to be a risky strategy in situations such as these where they have selected a strong candidate (former soldier, owns a small tea room in the ward, active in the local community) who risks losing his own personal appeal in place of Ruth Davidson’s Scottish Union and Conservative droid. Only time, and election results, will tell.

 

 

Bad weather and seeing Ruth’s big face plastered around the ward don’t seem to be worrying Helen Lewis, who is fighting the seat for the SNP. She has organised a ferocious ground campaign, and seems to have gotten out good numbers of activists who are willing to battle the Scottish weather to hold the seat for the yellow team.

SNP twitter has been pushing people all day to brave the weather and make sure they get out to vote. One passionate young activist is using her snow day to bash the phones and corral the SNP base into the voting booths. Impressive stuff!

One hardy soul has documented the kind of conditions that voters face if they want to cast a ballot in tonight’s contest. Expect turn-out to be VERY low.

 

 

Prediction: SNP Hold
 

East Devon DC, Exmouth Town (Liberal Democrat resigned, 5 candidates: Ind. LD. Lab, Con, Green)
2007 election results: LD 864/832/693, Con 450/428/389, Ind 426 
2011 election results: LD 838/758/676, Con 547/478/467, Green 397, UKIP 270, Ind 185
2015 election results: LD 1069/970/737,Con 865/856/711, Green 804, Lab 714

 

 

The Lib Dem despite losing 2 seats in Dorset last Thursday following a resignation, managed to pick up two others to compensate. We suspect they will be hold this seat on East Devon District Council, though the weather conditions in the south west are so severe that the Council offices have closed for the day though the election is unaffected.

Concerns that the contest would be cancelled were laid to rest by the Electoral Commission who surprisingly admitted there are “no provisions in law for the adjournment, abandonment, or to postpone a poll due to adverse weather”. A little bit of fun electoral geekery for you all there. 

Given a string of decent Lib Dem results in Devon and Somerset stretching back to before Christmas, this ought be a comfortable hold.

Prediction: Lib Dem Hold


Solihull MB, Blythe Ward (Conservative resigned, 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
2011 election results: Con 2358, SMRA 845,Lab 512, LD 452, Green 102
2012 election results: SMRA 1181, Con 1020, LD 285, Lab 266
2014 election results: Con 1612,  SMRA 1544, Lab 337
2015 election results: Con 5302, Green 1014, Lab 839
2016 election results: Con 1598,SMRA 1048,Lab 280,Green 199

A fairly dull one to end this week’s round-up. Some strong and stable numbers for the Tories would suggest a pretty easy hold, and with the Tories willing to step out in blizzards to shore up a safe seat, we are backing the blue team to hold.

 

 

Undoubtedly boosting Tory moral further is the decision of the The Solihull and Meriden Residents’ Association to step aside this year, despite coming a strong second in 2016 and the Greens, who control two nearby wards.

The Lib Dems, who previously held this ward and won the parliamentary seat twice in recent years (2005 & 2010), are standing for the first time since 2012. We don’t think this will be too much of a worry for the Blue Behemoth, who look set to romp home.

Prediction: Conservative Hold
 

A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.​

So far we have predicted 59 out of 71 results correctly.

PoliticsHome Newsletters

Get the inside track on what MPs and Peers are talking about. Sign up to The House's morning email for the latest insight and reaction from Parliamentarians, policy-makers and organisations.

Podcast
Engineering a Better World

The Engineering a Better World podcast series from The House magazine and the IET is back for series two! New host Jonn Elledge discusses with parliamentarians and industry experts how technology and engineering can provide policy solutions to our changing world.

NEW SERIES - Listen now

Partner content
Connecting Communities

Connecting Communities is an initiative aimed at empowering and strengthening community ties across the UK. Launched in partnership with The National Lottery, it aims to promote dialogue and support Parliamentarians working to nurture a more connected society.

Find out more