Nicola Sturgeon claims Brexit could knock £11bn off Scotland's GDP
Brexit could cost Scotland as much as £11.2bn a year by 2030, Nicola Sturgeon will claim today.
The First Minister will set out economic analysis from the Scottish government which projects a fall in tax revenues of between £1.7bn and £3.7bn.
She will say the forecasts underscore the need for Scotland to retain its EU membership, with the alternatives all leaving the country worse off.
The analysis says that applying UK-wide studies to Scotland “suggests that if the UK adopted an alternative trading relationship with the EU, it could potentially reduce Scottish GDP by up to £11.2bn a year by 2030, compared to what it could be if Brexit does not take place”.
Ms Sturgeon will use the findings to underline the need for Scotland to retain its current relationship with Brussels.
"This analysis - based on a wide range of sources - demonstrates that leaving the EU, under any potential alternative arrangement, will have a profound and long-lasting impact on the public finances and the wider economic and societal wellbeing of both Scotland and the UK as a whole,” she will tell an audience at Bute House in Edinburgh.
"That stark picture outlined today means that, whatever the model of relationship with the EU which is chosen by the UK Government in their negotiations before and after Article 50 is triggered, it will not be as economically beneficial as full EU membership.”
She has already held meetings with EU leaders on Scotland’s future, while also saying it is “highly likely” that Brexit will in time trigger a second referendum on Scottish independence.
Were it to become an independent state, it is not clear whether Scotland would be able to retain EU membership or be forced to re-apply.
That in turn would raise questions about Scotland’s currency, as all new accession states are required to join the euro once certain conditions for membership of the single currency are fulfilled.
The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson, called on the SNP to stop focusing on independence and “get back to the day job” of running the country.
“We now need a new type of government in Scotland. One which no longer sees every issue through the prism of independence and the constitution, but one 100% committed to the job in hand,” she said.