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UPDATE: By-election Breakdown 29/03/2018

UPDATE: By-election Breakdown 29/03/2018

John Johnston & Sam Webber | PoliticsHome

6 min read Member content

PoliticsHome looks at this week's local council by-elections and predicts who's in, who's out, who's lost the plot.


**UPDATE: If you don't want to know the scores - look away now**

Well, who could have predicted that Labour would hold onto this seat with a stonking majority. That's right. Everyone did.

What you maybe didn't predict is that the eurosceptic Brexiteer party would get beaten by UKIP.

That's right. The Tories, who were standing in this seat for the first time, were roundly thumped by every other standing party.

They achieved the paltry total of 41 votes. Yes, FORTY ONE. PoliticsHome by-election boffs aren't sure if that is the lowest ever votes for the Conservatives in a council election, but it won't be far off.

Mercifully, such a whooping will hopefully dissuade the Prime Minister from making another whimsical decision to call a general election while on holiday. Seasoned by-election veterans will of course remember that this time last year the Tories pulled off a stunning gain in a safe Labour seat. It would have been one of the last things the Prime Minister heard about before she disappeared off into the mountains...

Here are the total shares, and ballots cast for each candidate:

Labour - 657 - 78.2% (+2.4)

Green - 74 - 8.8% (-15.4%)

UKIP - 68 - 8.1% (+8.1)

​Conservative and Unionist - 41 - 4.9% (+4.9) 

**SPOILERS END**

After a few bountiful weeks of by-election bliss, we have arrived at Maundy Thursday. A day historically blacklisted as a possible by-election date, but now a seemingly annual event. So here we are, writing about it. 

And what a waste of time. Safe Labour seat. Boring. No chance of it changing hands. Go and have a glass of wine and put your feet up. Forget about politics for a few days. The only happy parties are the count staff who will be getting extra wages for having to count this on the bank holiday. You don't need to be bothering yourself with this...

Knowsley MB, Page Moss Ward (Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, UKIP, Green, Con)

Post by yellowperil on Mar 13, 2018 9:01:19 GMT

2004 election results: Lab 882/804/771, LD 437/281/265
2006 election results: Lab 765, LD 156
2007 election results: Lab 783/716,  LD 186/153
2008 election results: Lab 789, LD 213
2010 election results: Lab 2010, LD 396
2011 election results: Lab 1350, LD 100
2012 election results: Lab 1189, LD 85
2014 election results: Lab  unopp.
2015 election results: Lab 2629, UKIP 395
2016 election results: Lab 1208/1123/1051, Green 385

 

Still here? Fine. Lets get on with it.

This week's snooze fest takes place in one of the safest Labour wards in the entire country. This Merseyside ward has not seen a single opponent get over 500 votes in the last DECADE, and we don't think that tonight is going to change that.

The local Labour party are in firm control and seem to have a constant group of councillors, MPs and activists out pounding the pavements every weekend.

 

 

Their candidate Del Arnall previously held a seat on the borough council for five years until it was abolished through boundary changes, but she has carried on serving the local area as a parish councillor. If I was her, I'd have stuck my feet up and cracked open the champers to toast my win already. Perhaps that would be tempting fate.

Interestingly, this is the first time that the Conservatives have put a candidate up in this ward. Aaron Waters is the sacrificial lamb man looking to wash away the opposition. Unfortunately, the Conservatives presence in the ward is more wet blanket than tidal wave. If they get 10% of the vote, they should be very pleased.

UKIP's dastardly named Fred Fricker is unlikely to be rocking the boat much either. Poor Fred seems destined to roam around the country trying to give the final pockets of UKIP diehards someone to vote for. He stood  in the 2017 General Election and gave a short video interview at the count saying: "I'm just a paper candidate... I am here to provide a service to the UKIP voter...if you want to vote UKIP, I'm here."

Sort out the rats. That is the pledge of former soldier turned green warrior Kirk Sandringham. We hope that the Green party candidate is talking about rodents and not police informers, but you never know these days. The former squaddie and local born lad is hoping that a focus on cleaning up the parks and sorting out the pests might give him a chance to turn the seat green. Unlikely.

PREDICTION: Take a guess

Have a wonderful Easter, and we will see you next week.
 

**

A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.

So far we have predicted 75 out of 93 results correctly.

Post by yellowperil on Mar 13, 2018 9:01:19 GMT

Read the most recent article written by John Johnston & Sam Webber - By-election Breakdown - Return of the big Broon

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