Resident Doctor Strikes Could Derail Government's Waiting List Pledge, Experts Warn
Doctors stand on BMA picket line during strikes in 2023 (Credit: RichardBaker / Alamy Stock Photo)
4 min read
Government risks missing its waiting list target if resident doctor strike action goes ahead, health experts have warned.
Ministers have committed to ensuring that 92 per cent of patients wait no longer than 18 weeks for hospital treatment by 2029, as part of their plans to reform the NHS – a standard that has not been met since 2015.
To remain on target, the NHS will have to increase its outpatient appointment numbers by around 5 per cent every year until 2029, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Treatments increased by 3.8 per cent last year.
However, experts have warned that the government risks missing these targets if resident doctors go ahead with strike action, which is planned to start on 25 July and continue for five days.
Sebastian Rees, who leads the IPPR’s work on health, told PoliticsHome that the government is in a “tricky situation”.
“I don't think that doctors striking would be the primary reason why government wouldn't meet its target in that area, but clearly it's not helpful,” he said.
“The real risk is that there's not that much margin for error. Anything that would mean that you might lose a couple of weeks' activity each year can start to chip away at that ability to meet that timetable commitment.”
Those working in the NHS also believe the strikes will prevent government from reducing waiting lists.
One NHS insider told PoliticsHome: “Since the government came to office last July, there has been progress on waiting lists – but relatively small progress, falling by an average of less than 30,000 a month.
“The five days of strikes in July alone will set back this progress, before we even consider the chaos industrial action could cause ahead of and over the winter months.”
Last summer, the British Medical Association (BMA) agreed a pay rise of 22 per cent for resident doctors over two years with the government. However, the BMA is arguing that wages are still 20 per cent lower than in real terms than in 2008.
The BMA said it had met with Health Secretary Wes Streeting to try to prevent the strikes last week, but the government had said it would not negotiate further.
Streeting said the move was “unnecessary and unreasonable”, adding: “The NHS is hanging by a thread – why on earth are they threatening to pull it?”
Labour MPs hold varying opinions on the strikes. Rachael Maskell, the Labour MP for York Central who heavily criticised the government for its welfare reforms, said she is understanding of doctors’ grievances, but that taxpayer money should be spent on restoring pay of other professionals in the NHS, such as cleaners, caterers and those working in social care.
“I really hope that junior doctors or resident doctors will get behind those people on really low wages before they consider themselves in this dispute,” she told PoliticsHome.
“Whilst I obviously understand the raw deal that resident doctors have had over many, many years, so have other professionals within the NHS. They may not be as well organised, but that doesn't mean that they're not as important. I would rather the government supported them with their limited resources.”
Interim chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee and Labour MP for Birmingham Erdington, Paulette Hamilton, agreed that strike action is “just not the way forward”.
Speaking in her capacity as a constituency MP, rather than on behalf of the committee, the former nurse said: “Nurses have had one of the lowest [pay] increases of all the medical professions, and the resident doctors about a 28 per cent increase over three years. They've also had the recommended increase from the body that recommends what the level should be. I am very disappointed.”
However, another Labour MP, who chose to remain off record, said the government is too focused on making technological improvements in the NHS – and is not supporting its “demoralised” workforce.
“This government is very much focused on the big tech and the corporations and the business side of things,” they said. “Well, that's important, but if you forget the people, that's the magic ingredient for Labour. That should be the priority.”
Additional reporting by Zoë Crowther.
