India’s suspension of the Indus treaty with Pakistan shows how quickly water can be weaponised
Pakistan: Jinnah Barrage on the River Indus | Image by: XGEN 360 / Alamy Stock Photo
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South Asian countries are increasingly seeing water as a strategic asset rather than a shared resource
The recent conflict over Kashmir between India and Pakistan has highlighted how quickly water can become weaponised. In my recent book, The Coming Storm – how water will write the 21st century, I set out why the mismatch between a mushrooming global population and the availability of fresh water would lead to rising tensions in various parts of the world. It didn’t take long for a practical example to hit the headlines.
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed in Karachi on 19 September 1960. The Indus basin has a long history as a vibrant and agriculturally productive area dating back 4,000 years. During the Raj, Britain actively encouraged agriculture in the Punjab (meaning land of five rivers). In a remarkable feat of engineering, the British military created an extensive irrigation system, diverting the main tributaries of the Indus into a series of interlocking canals, making the Punjab the breadbasket of the region. When Partition came in 1947, India and Pakistan signed an agreement to maintain water supplies at pre-independence levels, but the disputes which quickly arose saw India cut off water from canals flowing to Pakistan in 1948.
The 1960 treaty gave India control over the waters of the three “eastern rivers” – the Beas, Ravi and Sutlej – while Pakistan was given control over the three “western rivers” – the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum. In total, India received control of 30 per cent of the total water carried by the rivers, and Pakistan received 70 per cent. Pakistan has long feared that its downstream position made it vulnerable to disruption of its water supply in times of crisis or conflict.
Following the recent rise in tensions between the two nations, culminating in the horrendous murders committed in Kashmir and the military action from both sides that followed, India suspended the treaty and – notwithstanding the current ceasefire – the treaty remains in abeyance. Pakistan has long taken the view that serious disruption to the water flow or, indeed, the diversion of the Indus would be regarded as “an act of war”. It has even been suggested that such an action could trigger use of a tactical nuclear weapon by Pakistan.
It is estimated that 46 per cent of the world’s population depend on rivers originating in Tibet
The suspension of the treaty reflects a more worrying trend, namely that South Asian countries are increasingly seeing water as a strategic asset rather than a shared resource. This pattern is reflected across the globe as competition for water is exacerbated by rising populations and climate stress.
China’s population has risen from 654 million in 1960 to 1.425 billion in 2023. India has experienced a similarly gargantuan growth spurt, from 445 million in 1960, overtaking China with 1.438 billion in 2023. In the same period, Pakistan’s population has grown from 45 million in 1960 to 247 million in 2023. The amount of water available, however, has remained the same with Tibet the main source.
Considering re-usage and agricultural methods, it is estimated that 46 per cent of the world’s population depend on rivers originating in Tibet, from the Indus and the Ganges to the Mekong. China, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Burma, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand all depend on rivers which originate in Tibet, so what happens there has, and will have, a major geopolitical impact. Countries around the Tibetan Plateau are all experiencing the same rapid urbanisation and with no water sharing plan in place, unilateral water policies are creating ever-increasing tensions. China, India, Pakistan and others have plans for hundreds of hydro-power facilities along the rivers emerging from Tibet which, along with major industrial projects, will have a huge impact on the ecosystems downstream, bringing new social and interstate frictions.
The current Indo-Pakistan dispute is likely to be part of an upstream-downstream power struggle that we will see much more of in the years ahead.
Sir Liam Fox is former Conservative MP, defence secretary and international trade secretary
