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Autumn Statement 2015: What to expect

Elizabeth Bates | Dods Monitoring | PoliticsHome

3 min read Partner content

PoliticsHome's Parliamentary Editor Liz Bates speculates on what will make headlines in next week's Autumn Statement.

Westminster is braced for what is expected to be a highly politicised statement from the Chancellor next week, with the Government set to announce altered plans for reforming tax credits in the Autumn Statement.   

This continues a saga that began when the exuberance of the Tories’ election victory in May was harnessed two months later in George Osborne’s emergency Budget.

Osborne outlined promised cuts in the welfare budget alongside measures like the higher minimum wage which he branded the ‘National Living Wage’.

However, the proposals were soon picked apart by commentators and opposition MPs when it emerged that around three million families would lose out on average £1,300 a year.

When the matter eventually came to the House of Lords, peers voted to force the Chancellor to think again.

With widespread calls for the inclusion of measures to ease the transition for those worst affected, all eyes will now be on how Osborne can announce such changes without giving the appearance of an embarrassing climb-down.

Hoping announcements in other areas will be more newsworthy, the Chancellor is expected to name more cities that will receive new powers as part of his beloved Northern Powerhouse.

Another policy which could grab headlines is the potential extension of a housing initiative which converts empty prisons into new homes.

The old favourites of fuel duty, pensions tax relief and tax avoidance are also likely to feature.

The spending review, which will coincide with the Autumn Statement, will set out the inevitable tidal wave of cuts across all unprotected departments.

With eleven departments having already agreed to slash their budgets by somewhere between 6% and 8% per year, ministers in other areas have been under pressure to follow suit.

However, Theresa May’s attempts to protect police budgets, Iain Duncan Smith’s vehement defence of Universal credit and Philip Hammond’s determination to protect one of Whitehall’s smallest budgets have made the Chancellor’s job difficult.

Finding out where the axe will fall hardest will expose who has come out on top in this power struggle.

Trumpeting investment will be Osborne’s main distraction technique, but opponents will focus on the continued impact of the cuts, and probably David Cameron’s apparent lack of knowledge in this area, which was displayed in a recent letter to a councillor in his constituency.    

Shrewd political operator that he is, the Chancellor will certainly endeavour to manipulate the coverage, but with critics lining up to continue the tax credits row and departments creaking under cuts, even he may struggle to spin this one.

Dods Monitoring's team of political consultants has compiled a speculation document looking at areas across government departments that could be impacted by the Spending Review and Autumn Statement.  Get your free copy here.

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