NEW: PoliticsHome By-election Breakdown 23/11

Cotswold DC, Grumbolds Ash & Avening Ward (Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
May 2015 result C 1108 LD 442

The first contest this week is in the southern end of Cotswold District Council in the middle of the Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty of the same name. The 2015 result here indicates a comfortable Tory hold, but it is worth noting as @ElectionMapsUK points out, that the previous two contests in this authority have both seen Tories defeated. Will it be third time lucky for a hold for the incumbent party here against Labour and Lib Dem candidates? We think so yes.

 

 

 

Prediction: Conservative Hold

Dover DC, St Margaret's at Cliffe Ward (Conservative resigned  - 2 candidates: Con, Lab)
May 2015 result C 1424/1221 UKIP 684 Lab 590/555

This contest is the result of the retirement of one of the longest serving local authority leaders in Kent if not in the UK. Paul Watkins had been leader of Dover District Council for 14 years before he stepped down in September.  
 

Despite the current cloud hanging over the Conservatives in this area (Dover MP Charlie Elphicke has been suspended from the party over allegations reported to the police and is sitting as an Independent) the result here is likely to be fairly clear. This is your quintessential two horse race with only a Tory and Labour candidate going to head. It should be a Tory hold.

Prediction: Conservative Hold

 

Herefordshire UA, Bishops Frome & Cradley Ward (Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green)

May 2015 result C 1331 Grn 610

In this part of the world as we discovered only a few weeks ago, it is usually a bunfight between the Tories and various different independents. Given there is no independent candidate here it is difficult to see anything other than a Tory hold. As you can see in the last contested election here in 2015 only the Greens stood here to prevent a walkover and lost by 721 votes. It will be interesting to see if anyone comes close to the Conservative candidate.

Prediction: Conservative Hold

Leicester UA, Eyres Monsell Ward (Labour resigned to become MEP - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)

May 2015 result Lab 1439/1229 UKIP 874/778 C 613/376 LD 253/179 Grn 203
 

This vacancy was caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Rory Palmer, who has now become an MEP replacing Dame Glenis Wilmott. It has been a Labour at least since 2007 and given UKIP came second here in 2015 the last time it was contested and are not standing this team a Labour hold is all but nailed on.

Prediction: Labour Hold
 

Neath Port Talbot CBC,  Bryncoch South Ward (Plaid Cymru died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru, UKIP)
May 2017 result PC 848/808 Lab 460/393 C 366/290 Grn 110 LD 102
 

Given this contest follows the death of a Plaid Cymru Councillor who had served here since 2004 and who was Mayor of Neath Port Talbot when she passed away back in August, we believe this will be a comfortable hold for the party of Wales. The previous result here from May 2017 shows Plaid comfortably ahead of Labour.

Prediction: Plaid Cymru Hold

Perth & Kinross UA, Perth City South Ward (Conservative resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, Ind)

May 2017 first preferences LD 2417 SNP 1793 C 1757 Lab 444 Ind 253 Grn 213 Ind 96
 

This is a three way marginal from the numbers in May 2017.  We are going to stick our neck out and call a narrow Lib Dem gain. It is dependent on preferences though (Single Transferable Vote system is used) so it will be interesting to follow how this comes out stage by stages as candidates are eliminated until a winner receives support from over 50% of the electorate.

Prediction: Lib Dem Gain

 

South Lanarkshire UA, Rutherglen Central & North Ward (Labour resigned following election as MP - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, UKIP)

May 2017 first preferences SNP 2030 Lab 1592 C 835 LD 478 Grn 206
 

Another difficult contest to predict not least due to the STV system mentioned above used in all Scottish local elections. From the first preference in May 2017 listed above Labour has a fight on its hands. We prediction this could well be an SNP gain.
Prediction: SNP Gain

 

Stockton-on-Tees UA, Parkfield & Oxbridge Ward (Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind)

January 2016 by-election Lab 598 C 363 UKIP 113 LD 65

May 2015 result Lab 1608/1501 C 950/887 Ind 419 Grn 285 LD 192/179 Libertarian 58
 

This should be a comfortable Labour hold but with no UKIP candidate standing the Conservatives look to be the clear challengers.

Prediction: Labour Hold
 

Stroud DC, Chalford Ward (Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green)
May 2016 result C 930/927/905 Grn 810 Lab 799/738 UKIP 353
 

Given this area has elected Green candidates in the past most recently in May 2017 where a Green candidate narrowly beat a Conservative by a mere 27 votes for the County Council seat we think it is possible here for the Greens to pull off a win here. As the numbers indicate it is a 3 way marginal and UKIP is not standing but the Lib Dems take their place.

Prediction: Green Gain

Wakefield MB, Wakefield West Ward - (Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Yorkshire First)

May 2016 result Lab 1563 C 962 Grn 324 LD 196 TUSC 143

May 2015 result Lab 2521 C 1714 UKIP 1324 Grn 298 TUSC 69

May 2014 result Lab 1506 C 885 Grn 504 TUSC 189 LD 172
 

The numbers above seem clear to us; this will be a Labour hold.

Prediction: Labour hold

So far we have predicted 25 out of 28 results correctly.

PoliticsHome Newsletters

Get the inside track on what MPs and Peers are talking about. Sign up to The House's morning email for the latest insight and reaction from Parliamentarians, policy-makers and organisations.