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Retailers brace for "toughest Christmas" for many years

Visa

2 min read Partner content

A consumer spending study released today demonstrates that expenditure in November fell when compared to figures for the previous month, leaving retailers hoping that pre-Christmas high street sales will ensure brighter data for December.

The Visa Europe UK Expenditure Index November 2011shows consumer spending is down slightly month-on-month compared to October's figures.

The Index, published on a monthly basis, also showed online spending remaining as a 'key pillar' of consumer spending, rising at an annual rate of 5.7 per cent.

Sector by sector, the Index shows that food, beverages and tobacco are the main area of spending weakness, contracting by 9.4 per cent on an unadjusted annual basis in November, whilst transport and communication dropped by 5.8 per cent.

Spending on recreation and culture has increased by 5.3 per cent compared to a year ago.

The Visa Europe UK Expenditure Index is based on spending on all Visa debit, credit and prepaid cards. These cards, used to make an average of over 1.9 billion transactions every quarter, account for £1 in £4 of all UK spending.

Variables such as card issuance, preferences and inflation are taken into account before figures are released.

Commenting on this month's figures, Dr Steve Perry, commercial director at Visa Europe, said it "remained to be seen" whether shoppers spending money in the run-up to Christmas would ensure more positive data for December.

He said: "Although consumer spending has picked up over the past week, overall November was broadly flat. In recent years there has been a trend for consumers to put off spending until later in December in anticipation of pre-Christmas high street sales.

"It remains to be seen if this will be the case again this year."

Perry continued: "Good news can be found in the growth of online spending which continued to rise year-on-year and registered an improvement on October's rate."

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, the financial information services company which compiles the data, argued that a tough Christmas may lie ahead for retailers.

Williamson said: "Consumer spending has shown no growth over the past year."

"The fact that spending is at least holding up in the face of growing gloom about the economy and household finances gives encouragement that the UK economy may avoid a slide back into recession, providing the euro area's financial crisis does not deteriorate."

"However, early signs are that spending is coming under increased pressure in December as consumer worries have intensified after the chancellor's Autumn Statement.

"This looks set to be the toughest Christmas for households and retailers for many years."

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