How Ruthless Will Starmer's Reshuffle Be?
17th July 2025. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer leaves No 10 Downing Street | Alamy
3 min read
The expectation that Keir Starmer will carry out his first significant reshuffle is at the forefront of many minds as Parliament prepares to return in September.
Starmer is thought not to be a huge fan of reshuffles, believing that they risk creating more problems than they solve. He "hates" them, remarked one Downing Street source.
But with the Prime Minister keen to turn the page on a difficult first year or so in power, during which both his ratings and those of the Labour Party have fallen sharply, figures around Starmer are urging him to seize the opportunity for a major shake-up.
“I want Keir to be ruthless”, one Labour MP told PoliticsHome.
There is a belief in Westminster that September, between Parliament's return and Labour conference in Liverpool at the end of the month, could be when Starmer shuffles his pack.
Writing for The House this week, former Labour cabinet minister Jim Murphy, founder of Arden Strategies, shared data showing that since Tony Blair entered No 10 in 1997, September has been one of the most popular months for prime ministers to carry out major reshuffles, which Murphy defines as including five or more Cabinet-level changes.
Some Labour MPs believe Starmer should "give two fingers" to Nigel Farage by reshuffling in early September to coincide with Reform conference on Friday the 5th, taking media attention away from the man he considers to be the de facto leader of the opposition.
Speculation over who could be at risk has been rife for months. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Commons Leader Lucy Powell and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson have recently been described as facing demotion, prompting criticism that there is a 'boys club' in No 10 briefing against senior women. The Times reported that Starmer has already given Phillipson direct reassurances that her job is safe. Sacking Nandy is also seen as a risky move, as she could become a high-profile figure for the party's restless soft left to coalesce around.
Chief Whip Alan Campbell is seen as one senior who could be moved out, with party discipline emerging as a key problem for Starmer in recent months.
“The Whips' Office is supposed to keep the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) motivated, loyal, informed and any basic assessment of how they’ve done is that they’ve completely failed,” a critical Labour MP said.
Days before Parliament broke up for summer recess in July, four MPs – Neil Duncan Jordan, Chris Hinchcliff, Brian Leishman and Rachel Maskell – lost the Labour whip over their rebellious behaviour, but there are some Labour MPs who believe that the Whips' Office should have gone further and disciplined more of their colleagues.
Net zero minister Miatta Fahnbulleh is viewed as in danger after it was reported that she was involved in a WhatsApp group used by Labour rebels to torpedo Starmer's welfare reforms.
“What they’ve done for too long is to reward bad behaviour,” one Labour MP told PoliticsHome.
While there are questions over how much change there will be at senior levels of government, party insiders expect an "exodus" of mid-ranking ministers, swapping those deemed not to have delivered with parliamentary private secretaries and backbenchers who have impressed.
PoliticsHome understands that Sue Gray, formerly chief of staff to the Prime Minister, was a key driver behind the decision upon winning power to give ministerial jobs to MPs who had the experience of working in Labour governments of Blair and Gordon Brown.
However, some of those MPs face being replaced by newbies who are described as leaving a positive impression during their first year in the Commons. Insiders discuss PPSs like Josh MacAlister, Jess Toale and Josh Simons as names to look out for, as well as backbenchers including Dan Tomlinson, Mike Tapp, Helena Dollimore and Gordon McKee.
There is a potential danger for Starmer in failing to promote MPs who already feel underutilised amid what has recently been an increasingly fractious PLP.
“I’m not going to spend the next four years on the backbenches voting for stuff I don't believe in, watching other people who’ve rebelled get promoted,” one MP warned.
