Closed shopfronts open the door for Reform
4 min read
Visible improvements to our high streets will boost Labour's chances of re-election.
Imagine a few years from now. You’re heading to the polling station to cast your vote, and you pass through your local high street. What do you see and feel? It might be that the streets are buzzing and feel safe. Equally, it could feel empty, hollow, and unsafe, with shuttered shopfronts signalling decline. Many factors will affect how people vote in the next election, whether it’s how far their money stretches or if public services are up to scratch. The physical fabric of their local area will be important too. The high street – with its social, cultural, and historic symbolism – encapsulates this.
Recent research by Power to Change, reported by PoliticsHome, examined Reform’s electoral performance in places where persistent high street vacancy (whereby a building is vacant for more than three years) had increased most, before the general election. These places are dubbed the ‘High Street Warning Lights’.
The research – the Shuttered Front – found that whilst Reform came second in 24 per cent of the High Street Warning Lights, they came second in 14 per cent of the remaining seats across England. Digging deeper, the research found that once local election results are factored into the analysis, there are 39 constituencies where Reform came in first or second place at the 2024 general election or won majority or minority control in county council elections in 2025. This is a particular problem for Labour, with Reform their direct challenger in many of these seats.
It is a challenge to be taken seriously, given that it builds on previous research demonstrating an association between high street vacancy and pub closures, with support for UKIP. The contours of the next election are still taking shape, but our analysis suggests that the Shuttered Front could be a key battleground, and that visible decline (or improvement) will be a factor in how the public casts their vote. This was a key test that the previous Conservative government failed to meet as part of ‘levelling up’. We know how that ended up: in an empty slogan and electoral defeat.
If the government wants to avoid that possible future, it needs to take the physical fabric of places seriously. At the same time, it must acknowledge the broader political context where most people – 84 per cent – feel they have little or no control over the decisions that affect their lives and trust in government is at a record low. The answer is for high street renewal to be led by the community businesses and organisations that people trust. At Power to Change, this is something we’re actively testing in places across the country, such as Stockport, which forms part of the Shuttered Front.
For the government, this means pursuing and shouting about a package of policies to get behind community-led high street renewal. The forthcoming Community Right to Buy should see the government mobilise civil society, Mayors of combined authorities, and local councils to publicise the new policy once it is operational. Funding should back community ownership, as well as ensuring existing schemes like the Plan for Neighbourhoods and growth funds support this. Expert support should be on hand, and opportunities for community-led governance, like Community Improvement Districts, expanded.
High streets matter because people care about them. That’s enough reason to act, with politics adding a further incentive to the government. As one MP said in a meeting with our team recently, “I won’t deserve to keep my seat if the high street is still the same as when I got elected”. Time to get to work, then.
Nick Plumb is Director of Policy and Insight at Power to Change and was a board member of the High Streets Task Force from 2022 to 2024.
