On the first day of the sixth Conference of P5 Nuclear Weapons States hosted by the UK in London on the 4th and 5th February,
Dods Monitoring has produced a briefing
presenting the results of an exclusive poll of MPs on their views of the like-for-like replacement of the Trident nuclear deterrent.
The briefing looks at the key findings, including a breakdown of political parties’ support for Trident. It shows how the nuclear deterrent could potentially become a point for any potential coalition negotiations, with smaller parties such as the SNP, the Greens and Plaid Cymru opposing the renewal and calling it a red line issue.
The publication of the
Government’s updateto Parliament on Trident back in December has sparked fresh debate and brought the UK’s nuclear deterrent back on the House of Commons’ agenda.
On 20th January MPs voted on a
motionagainst Trident’s replacement which is expected to cost
£20bn in total. The
motionwas defeated and interestingly enough, amongst the 250+ MPs who did not cast a vote were Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband.
On the same day the Ministry of Defence published a
written ministerial statementreaffirming its commitment to plan to renew Trident, though the Liberal Democrats continue to make the case for alternatives.
With pollsters indicating that 2015 could see the most unpredictable vote in living memory, it is interesting to understand how political parties perceive Trident’s renewal and whether this could be a red line issue for any potential future coalition negotiations.
The Dods poll indicates that over half of the MPs questioned were in favour of a like—for—like replacement of the Trident nuclear deterrent whilst a quarter disagreed.
An overwhelming number of MPs, 71 per cent, agreed that Continuous—at–sea—deterrence should be maintained regardless of the nature of Trident’s replacement.
When looking at the data broken down according to party, it appears that the Conservatives are overwhelmingly in favour of a like-for-like replacement of the nuclear deterrent (80 per cent), whereas only 43 per cent of Labour MPs questioned answered strongly agree/agree. None of the Liberal Democrats MPs or those from the other parties agreed.
When asked whether Continuous—at –sea deterrence should be maintained, 97 per cent of Conservatives MPs and 61 per cent of Labour MPs agreed. In contrast only 13 per cent of Lib Dems agreed with this scenario, none of the other MPs from smaller parties agreed and 80 per cent strongly disagreed.
The Conservatives remain staunch supporters of a like-for-like replacement whilst Labour wants to be seen as tough on defence and not compromising on the nuclear fleet, as indicated by shadow foreign secretary, Douglas Alexander in a recent appearance on the Andrew Marr Show.
The Lib Dems are in favour of ending CASD and reducing the submarine force, and continue to make the case for alternatives. The SNP has made it very clear that Trident's renewal would not be something they would negotiate on, as have Plaid Cymru and the Greens.
With the three main political parties in favour of Trident's renewal and the smaller parties calling for an end to Trident, we are seeing a polarised political debate in the run up to the most unpredictable general election in living memory that could potentially lead to another coalition agreement. With almost all the parties calling Trident a red line issue, it would be very interesting to see who the kingmakers will be and if the red lines would eventually be compromised.
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'Trident nuclear deterrent: A general election issue?' click here