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Thu, 10 July 2025
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Wet weather slows household spending slightly but consumer recovery continues overall

Visa

2 min read Partner content

Headline findings:

- Year-on-year household expenditure rose slightly in February (+0.3%), following a solid increase on the year in January (+1.5%).
- Month-on-month spending fell marginally in February (-0.4%), following the quickest monthly increase in expenditure since September 2012 in January (+1.8%).
- Quarterly spending figures signalled that underlying expenditure fell slightly in February (-0.5%), after no change in January (+0.0%).
- Non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year expenditure rose solidly through Online spending channels (+4.3%), but declined slightly through Face-to-Face and Mail/Telephone Order categories (-0.9% and -0.8%, respectively).

Jeremy Nicholds, Director of Commercial Development at Visa Europe said:

“February’s wet weather put a mild dampener on consumer purchases but wasn’t enough to halt the continued spending recovery in the UK. This month was the fifth in a row to show an improvement in year-on-year spending and while there was a decline from January on a month-by-month basis, this is less significant than the longer term upward trend. As the weather improves, this upward momentum should be sustained in the coming months as well.

“While there was less evidence of a half-term boost on spending overall than might have been hoped for, there were undoubted winners in February. Household goods retailers enjoyed a good month, buoyed by a strengthening housing market which saw a 4.3% year-on-year increase in spending for February in this category. Consumers’ increasing preference to shop online also made itself clear, encouraged in part no doubt by the month long downpours. Internet-based spending rose 4.3% year-on-year for February compared to a 0.9% decrease for shopping on the high street. And hotels and restaurants enjoyed another strong year-on-year increase, up 7.1%.”

Paul Smith, Director at Markit said:

“February’s data suggest the UK economic recovery remains firmly on track. Despite some evidence of poor weather impacting on expenditure, overall spending volumes remained higher than a year earlier as consumers continue to gain in confidence and were willing to raise their spending.

“Based on trends for the quarter so far, I expect household consumption to make a positive contribution to overall GDP figures for Q1. As unemployment continues to fall, housing market activity continues to pick up and real-take home pay finally starts to rise, expect to see the positive trend in consumer spending to be maintained in the coming months.”