Ditching OBR Forecasts Would Be "Stupid", Says Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt

Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was critical of those who want to abolish the OBR (Alamy)

3 min read31 October 2025

Doing away with the independent economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), would be “shooting ourselves in the foot” and damage the country’s finances, according to former chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

"It would be just a stupid thing to do," he told PoliticsHome.

Set up in 2010 by the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition government, the OBR produces analysis of public finances and forecasts the effects of government policy. A key part of this work is modelling the economic impact of what is announced in major fiscal events, including whether a government is on track to stick to its own fiscal rules.

How OBR forecasts could affect the Labour government's plans has been a major talking point heading into Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget later this month.

In recent years, there have been calls from both the right and left of British politics to move away from the OBR's current role, with some MPs feeling the body has too much influence on government economic policy.

The fact that former prime minister Liz Truss didn't involve the OBR in her September 2022 mini-Budget was a big reason why financial markets panicked in response.

Speaking on The Rundown podcast from PoliticsHome, Hunt, who served as chancellor from 2022 to 2024, strongly defended the OBR and the body's current chair, Richard Hughes.

“It’s a very important job constitutionally,” said the Conservative MP for Godalming and Ash.

Having admitted to having some “run-ins” with the OBR during his time in the Treasury, he criticised as “stupid” those who have called for its abolition, and a return to the government putting out its own forecasts, as happened before the independent body was created 15 years ago.

“We would be shooting ourselves in the foot," Hunt said.

“Public finances would get even worse because the interest rate we pay on our debt would shoot up, because markets would say, 'the UK is not taking its fiscal responsibilities seriously and we're going to charge them more for their debt'.”

The former Cabinet minister added: "About a third of our national debt is held by foreigners, and they would say: 'I'm sorry, but we need you to pay more for it. So the pressures around budgets would be even worse...

“So I don't actually think whatever anyone says, I don't think any government would ever do this. Because it would be just a stupid thing to do.”

However, the former chancellor said Hughes could give him and his successors in the role “a bit more slack “ when assessing government policy to create growth, warning that the UK is going to have to take some "risk" to achieve significant economic growth.

Hunt said the OBR "can always come back" and downgrade its forecasts if a government's growth policies "don't turn out the way we say they're going to".

"But the point is that," Hunt continued, "unlike, let's say, Goldman Sachs, who are producing their forecasts on the British economy, who are a commentator, the OBR are actually an actor as well as a commentator.

“And they can't completely hide behind the fact that ‘our job is just to give a commentary on what ministers are doing’, because actually their commentary is in fact part of what decides what ministers are able and not able to do.”

The Rundown is presented by Alain Tolhurst, and is produced by Nick Hilton and edited by Ewan Cameron for Podot