Labour Figures Grow Nervous About Net Zero After Reform Success

A minister has voiced doubts about Energy Secretary Ed Miliband's future in the cabinet (Alamy)

Reform UK has won a by-election from Labour, gained control of a string of councils in England, and secured two regional mayors, in a very strong set of results for Nigel Farage's party. Reform won many council seats from both Labour and the Conservatives, creating a concerning electoral picture for the mainstream parties.

As parliamentarians, councillors and activists start to digest the results, some in Labour see Reform's net zero scepticism as a particular threat – and are beginning to see it as the next big political dividing line after Brexit. The political future of Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has been called into question.

Only days before the local elections, Labour prime minister Tony Blair criticised the Labour government’s stance on net zero and said that policies and public debate on the issue were “riven with irrationality”.

He wrote in a paper for his think tank that the government risked alienating voters who were “being asked to make financial sacrifices and changes in lifestyle when they know that their impact on global emissions is minimal”.

Following the local election results, a government minister told PoliticsHome they had “a lot of sympathy” with Blair’s comments and suggested that there are rumours of a reshuffle that might affect the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ).

“You cannot reach net zero on the backs of working people,” they said.

“It's just not realistic and not fair. We all need to do our recycling. We all need to be conscious of making small journeys and walking where we can… but ultimately, in the grand scheme of things, that is not going to make a blind bit of difference, and therefore we need to actually be going after those people who are the big polluters, who are going to make a difference."

The minister confirmed there were rumours in ministerial circles of a cabinet reshuffle in June – with Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson the most likely casualties. But they also mentioned another name rumoured to be for the chop: Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.

“A couple of changes, now we're a year into it, could be beneficial,” they said, when asked whether they would welcome these changes.

At a press gallery lunch in Parliament earlier this year, Reform leader Nigel Farage told reporters that net zero would be the “next Brexit”.

There are signs some Labour MPs are starting to agree. A Red Wall Labour MP said that people need to see the “tangible benefits” of net zero faster, and that it would be “potentially very toxic” to quickly transition to electric vehicles if it puts jobs at risk.

“The abstract stuff about saving the planet 40 years down the line, great, but it's the jobs that will be created getting there that are more important,” they said.

They added that the government should be wary of taking a tone of “we know best” on issues such as net zero, explaining that a “moralising tone” on climate issues “really rubs people up the wrong way”.

“We've got to be really careful of giving off a vibe that we're not listening and we're just plowing ahead,” they  warned. 

“I agree with the general direction the government's setting but we know from Brexit, that people really kick against this idea of ‘all the experts know best’ and that worries me. Reform has got this anti-net zero vibe going on, and there's a risk that that could play out the same way as Brexit.”

Not all Labour MPs agree, however. Another MP, based in the north-east, said that Miliband was “incredibly popular” in their patch, and described net zero measures as being recognised as a “key part of the future” by the public.

However, they said that net zero backlash among Labour figures was “not a fiction” and said it was important that consumers do not feel that they are being asked to “cover what industry isn’t”.

While Reform might have seemingly done well on the back of an anti-net zero platform, their messaging on the subject is far from straightforward. According to More in Common polling in March, only 12 per cent of people who said they would vote for Reform said they would do so because of their net zero policies.

After taking control of Durham County Council – among many others – Farage said council staff working on diversity or climate change initiatives should be “seeking alternative careers very, very quickly”.

However, in some areas of the country, this approach could backfire for Farage’s party.

In Hull and East Yorkshire, Reform candidate Luke Campbell – now elected mayor – repeatedly came under fire for his stance on net zero, in an area where the renewable energy industry is a huge source of employment in the region.

When asked whether he supported the pursuit of net zero policies in a BBC candidates debate, Campbell responded “half and half”, while all the other candidates fully raised their hands.

“I don’t think net zero is achievable, but forget party politics: if it’s creating jobs in this region, I’ll put these people first and create the jobs,” they said.

The consensus among many of the MPs who spoke to PoliticsHome was that if Labour is to stave off the threat of Reform, it needs to tighten its messaging around how all of its policies – not least net zero – will benefit. 

The content promoted by the government on Reddit in the run-up to the local elections suggests that perhaps No10 is starting to recognise this. 

The minister quoted above suggested that the government and Labour Party needed a stronger ideological direction, as well as a better communication strategy.

“Who are we and what do we stand for?” they questioned. “The public and a lot of our MPs have forgotten.”

They added that during the local election campaigns, many voters were particularly critical of government decisions on the winter fuel allowance and benefits payments. 

“It's not what you would think of a Labour government,” they admitted, adding that the Labour MP Whatsapp group was “kicking off” after the local elections, with many MPs “sad and frustrated”.

The minister said they expect colleagues across the party to “be more vocal after today, full stop”. “Because it's their heads on the chopping blocks now.”

There is also some feeling among MPs that the campaigning operation in some local authorities and in Runcorn and Helsby – where Labour lost a once-safe seat to Reform – was somewhat lacklustre.

In the run-up to the elections, multiple Labour MPs told PoliticsHome they thought Reform was going to win, with one exasperated MP on Wednesday saying “Reform have it”.

Their despair seemed somewhat misplaced when Reform ended up only winning by six votes, after a recount.

After most of the results were announced, one Labour MP told PoliticsHome that there was considerable “activist fatigue” across the board, including in Runcorn, after both the general election last year and nearly a year of Labour being in government.

“Most members are used to being in opposition as a party,” they said.

“That shuddering shift of we're in government now… we have to defend things that maybe don't go as far as we'd like, or are a little bit at odds with the average party member.

“People are tired because it was a local election, not a general election, there wasn't the same sense of urgency among our activist base.”

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