Treasury analysis 'to claim Britain will be £150bn worse off under no-deal Brexit'

Posted On: 
28th November 2018

Treasury analysis is set to reveal that a no-deal Brexit will make Britain £150bn worse off over the next fifteen years, it has been reported.

Brexit will cost the UK billions in lost revenues, according to the Treasury.

According to the Telegraph, the new economic forecasts will also say that the Brexit deal agreed by Theresa May will cost £40bn in lost revenue over the same period, compared with continued EU membership.

The Prime Minister is likely to use there findings to urge her MPs to back her blueprint when it comes before the Commons next month, warning that rejecting it would be economically disastrous.

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According to the Treasury analysis, leaving the EU without a deal would lead to GDP being 7.5% lower over the next fifteen years, compared to a 1-2% shortfall under the Prime Minister's plan.  

Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab dismissed the findings, telling the Telegraph: "There is an economic credibility gap with all these Treasury-led forecasts, based on their track record of failure, the questionable assumptions they rely on, and the inherent challenge of making reliable long-term forecasts.

"Politically, it looks like a rehash of Project Fear. People expect to be inspired, not scared witless into deferring to the Government. Whenever Whitehall make forecasts for leaving the EU on WTO terms, it's always the same.

"They rely on the most pessimistic assumptions, and airbrush out the opportunities of leaving with full regulatory control and the ability to strike free trade deals around the world."

In a separate row, the Government has been criticised over its refusal to publish the Brexit legal advice it has received in full.

The advice has been seen by the Cabinet and was expected to be handed over to MPs after Parliament voted to force its publication.

But Downing Street has said that only a “position statement” will be released rather than the “final and full advice” given to ministers.

Brexiteer Peter Bone said: “People will naturally think the legal advice doesn't support their case and that's why they don't want to publish it.

"It's a very dangerous precedent for the executive to defy Parliament. Maybe they're trying to delay publishing it until after the vote but that would be an outrage."

Meanwhile, Mrs May will travel to Scotland for talks with Nicola Sturgeon as part of her UK-wide campaign to win support ahead of next month’s crunch vote in Parliament.

The Prime Minister said: "We will be out of the common agricultural policy, which has failed our farmers, and out of the common fisheries policy, which has so tragically failed Scotland’s coastal communities.

"At long last, we will be “an independent coastal state” again – taking back full sovereign control over our waters, and free to decide for ourselves who we allow to fish in our waters.

"The EU maintained throughout the negotiation process that it wanted to link overall access to markets to access to fisheries. It failed in the withdrawal agreement and it failed again in the political declaration. 

"I have been robust in defending the interests of Scottish fisherman so far-  and I will always be so."