ANALYSIS: General election could see Labour lose 30 seats it has held for up to a century

Posted On: 
3rd December 2019

Labour is on course to lose 30 safe seats - including one it has held for more than a century - according to the latest polling data.

Labour is set to lose 51 seats in the upcoming election on 12 December, according to YouGov.
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Analysis of YouGov’s MRP model and Election Reform Society figures suggests scores of constituencies across northern England and Wales could fall to the Conservatives on 12 December.

The top 30 constituencies which are most likely to change hands, according to the analysis, are all currently held by the Labour Party.

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They include Rother Valley, which Labour has held since the seat was created in 1918 and where the party currently has a majority of just under 4,000.

Meanwhile, three of the other seats set to turn blue - Don Valley, Leigh and Newcastle-under-Lyme - have been held by Labour since the 1922 election.

Another 11 of the seats have been held by Labour since the 1930s, including Wakefield, Bassetlaw and Wrexham.

Others included in the list of long-held Labour seats tipped to go Tory are Dudley, Barrow and Furness, Darlington, West Bromwich East and Bury South.

The Electoral Reform Society published research on Monday showed that nearly 200 seats have not changed hands since the Second World War, with 98 of them being held by Labour.

According to YouGov’s MRP projection - which said the Conservatives were on course for a 68-seat majority - predicted that 58 constituencies would change colour on 12 December, most of them from Labour to the Tories.

In an acknowledgment that it needs to do more to shore up support in its northern heartlands, Labour's election strategy has shifted towards defending seats it has held for decades.

Party chairman Ian Lavery, who represents Wansbeck in Northumberland, has been touring constituencies across the north, while the Unite trade union has launched a "Come Home To Labour" campaign to win back its traditional voters.

A Labour spokesperson said the party did not comment on polls.